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GEAB 130

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Dec 2018

A changing paradigm: Glimpses of what is coming after the global “nationalist” wave (part two)

Future developments: What will be the new normal?

President Trump emerged as a champion of those who perceived that they were left behind in the inequality race and who felt others were ‘flooding’ into ‘their’ country to take their jobs, as traditional politicians filled their own pockets, whilst clinging to economic theories of growth and globalisation that failed to provide an answer, but rather exported work to China (and elsewhere) where people worked for a pittance and destroyed their environment in the process. The fact that economists could ‘prove’ that the real cause of change was often technology and automation provided little comfort for such people. And, given there is a foundation of truth in some of these arguments, voters have a right to feel frustrated.  But given these driving forces, what could happen next? In reality, the future will be shaped, not just by what President Trump and his ilk will do, but also what reactions will follow to oppose them in an (‘equal and opposite’) direction. 

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