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The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Oct 2021

Global Political Agenda: The major events of the next 3 months

Our team is always impressed by the broad vision provided by this exercise in exploring the future of the upcoming major political events. Whilst checking the following elections in Africa, South America and Eastern Europe in particular, we are struck by the gigantic wave of transformation sweeping or about to sweep the global political scene. An Eastern Europe from which populism and cold war[1] overtones are about to disappear abruptly; an Africa that is fighting to finalise the democratic transitions that will enable it to enter the 21st century with a place of choice; a South America that may be on the verge of exiting from the divisions born of the cold war and finding its third way, etc. A cross-sectional and in-depth look at the global political agenda for the coming quarter gives real reasons for hope. In any case, it helps to break out of the haunting coverage of US-China tensions and Coronavirus…

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Contents

Six years after the announcement of the Brexit, five years after the transatlantic "shock" of Trump's election, a few months after the withdrawal from Afghanistan, our team anticipates that a [...]

The new military alliance between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States (AUKUS) illustrates nothing more than a reheating of the Cold War between China and the West. In [...]

In 2024, the German military fighter planes that guarantee the country's role in NATO's nuclear sharing will be outdated. If this equipment is not replaced, Germany will no longer be [...]

Last August, Bernard Arnault (LVMH) overtook Jeff Bezos (Amazon) as world’s richest person.  The luxury giants have performed brilliantly on the stock market. There is a lot of talk about [...]

The dollar will collapse only if the United States decides to let it collapse. The country is now in a situation where it is getting closer to having to make [...]

Cash, gold, commodities and cryptos - A strong case  The above remarks reinforce our recommendations from last March "A short guide for investors in times of reflation/inflation". A new monetary [...]

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