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GEAB 138

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Oct 2019

GlobalEurope Future Agenda (October-February): 56 dates that will change the world (or not)

To be able to advance in a complex world that is in full transition, it is helpful to have a GPS system. This triannual calendar of future events is one of the many guides that GEAB offers to readers to help them navigate through the fog of the future. Here are the ’56 events that will change the world… or not’ over the next four months. We have summarised them in the chart below, rating each with a level of significance (from 1 to 10) and a potential to bring about change (weak, average, strong), where the nature of that change is indicated by the colour (positive in green, neutral or uncertain in orange, and negative in red). This table is followed by the usual information/analyses/anticipations concerning each date.

Enjoy your journey into the future!

Date Place Event Global significance rating Potential and nature
(+/-) of change
14-19 Oct Washington (US) Annual IMF/WB meetings

6

Strong
16-17 Oct Washington (US) Meeting of Commonwealth Finance Ministers

7

Strong
17 Oct Gibraltar Parliamentary elections

3

Average
18 Oct Brussels (BE) European Brexit Summit

7

Strong
20 Oct Switzerland Federal elections

4

Weak
20 Oct Bolivia General elections

5

Weak
21 Oct Canada General elections

6

Strong
23-24 Oct Sochi (RU) 1st Russia-Africa Summit

5

Average
27 Oct Argentina Presidential election

7

Strong
27 Oct Uruguay First round of the presidential election

4

Weak
28 Oct-22 Nov Charm el-Sheikh (EG) World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC-19)

9

Average
29-31 Oct Stockholm (SE) Annual session of the Nordic Council

3

Weak
29-31 Oct Riyadh (SA) Future Investment Initiative

4

Average
31 Oct United Kingdom Brexit day

10

Strong
31 Oct Frankfurt (DE) Lagarde takes office as head of the ECB

7

Average
31 Oct-4 Nov Bangkok (TH) ASEAN Summit

6

Weak
1st Nov Brussels (BE) The new Commission takes office

7

Weak
4-7 Nov Lisbon (PT) Web Summit

4

Weak
4-7 Nov Manilla (RP) 3rd Summit of the Asia Finance Forum “The Future of Inclusive Finance”

4

Average
7 Nov Frankfurt (DE) Eurogroup meeting

4

Weak
9 Nov Germany 30th anniversary of the fall of Berlin Wall

5

Weak
10 Nov Romania First round of the Presidential elections

5

Weak
10 Nov Spain Early legislative and senatorial elections

6

Average
11 Nov EU-Venezuela Expiry of EU sanctions against Venezuela

1

Weak
11 Nov Luxembourg Second Annual Sukukuk Summit of the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB)

4

Average
11–17 Nov Santiago de Chile (CL) APEC Forum

4

Weak
13-14 Nov Brazil (BR) BRICS Summit

4

Weak
25 Nov Uruguay Second round of the presidential election

4

Weak
25-26 Nov Busan (KS) Korea-ASEAN Summit

7

Strong
25-26 Nov London (GB) MoneyLIVE Summit

4

Average
27 Nov Strasbourg (FR) Change of presidency of the Council of Europe

1

Weak
28 Nov Bishkek (KG) Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Summit

2

Weak
26-29 Nov Malabo (GQ) 5th Summit of the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries

5

Weak
29 Nov Moscow (RU) 14th International Conference of the Eurasian Development Bank “Eurasian Economic Integration

5

Weak
1st Dec Brussels (BE) The new President of the EU Council takes office

6

Weak
2-13 Dec Santiago de Chile (CL) COP25

6

Average
2-4 Dec Phnom-Penh (KH) 40 years of the AIMF

4

Weak
3-4 Dec London (GB) 70 years of NATO

9

Strong
4 Dec Frankfurt (DE) Eurogroup meeting

4

Weak
5 Dec Bento Gonçalves (BR) Mercosur and Associated States Summit

4

Average
5-6 Dec Wien (AT) OPEC Meeting

4

Weak
12 Dec Algeria Presidential elections

5

Strong
12-13 Dec Brussels (BE) European Council

4

Average
15-16 Dec Madrid (ES) 14th ASEM Summit of Foreign Ministers Together for effective Multilateralism

3

Weak
18 Dec Buenos Aires (AR) Argentina takes over Mercosur presidency after Brazil

4

Average
19 Dec Frankfurt Meeting of the General Council of the ECB

4

Average
Before the end of the year Maybe in Paris (FR) Summit in Normandy format

8

Strong
2019-2020 USA Procedure for the dismissal of the American President

8

Strong
1st Jan Quito (EC) Ecuador leaves OPEC

2

Average
1st Jan Vietnam Vietnam takes over ASEAN presidency

3

Weak
1st Jan African Union South Africa takes over the presidency

5

Average
January

 

Kiev (UA) End of the Russia-Ukraine contract for the transit of natural gas

6

Strong
11 Jan Taiwan Presidential and legislative elections

6

Strong
21-24 Jan Davos (CH) World Economic Forum

5

Weak
26 Jan Peru Early elections

6

Average
Febr – May USA Primary and Caucuses / Presidential 2020

5

Average

 

14-19 October – Washington, D.C. (US): IMF/WB Annual Meetings

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In summary

As an overview and introduction to our GlobalEurope Future Agenda in 56 dates, we anticipate a year’s end full of surprises and reversals – 'surprises' in terms of mainstream media [...]

Since July 8, the 'Tsipras parenthesis' that did so much to enrage the European Union, the United States and so many other interests, was closed. The wind of hope and [...]

The chemical industry in Europe is facing many challenges resulting from changes in its competitive position, global and local environment issues, as well as regulatory and technological innovation. A priori, [...]

Monetary Policy – beware of the direction change The shift towards the green colour of the economic indicators linked to the reduction in trade tensions at the end of the [...]

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