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GEAB 112

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Feb 2017

Investments, trends and recommendations (Feb 2017)

Euro: keep believing in it!

The LEAP team now believes that the more we are told about the difficulties of the euro, the more we must hear “course change needed” rather than “end of the euro coming”. Euro exit threats are mostly brandished as part of the haggling and bargaining kind of negotiations currently taking place among all the actors concerned, each with radically divergent interests. What collapsed within the euro crisis is not the euro currency but the community method. Germany is about to regain control of the euros’ governance, Paris is on its way to becoming one of the first European financial centres, the EU27 is in the hands of a Polish guy who is concerned about maintaining the political weight of the United States at the top of the economic union; the extreme right will be there, to calm those who grumble over a Europe which is managed by a few big countries. And once business begins to purr again, the recently posted intentions of democratisation will be left far behind. But at least the European institutional system will be back in order to serve the economic interests, very dissatisfied in recent years by the loss of efficiency resulting from the great cacophony linked to the unbearable increase in the number of ordering powers. Simplification is on its way and we are not anticipating anything other than a reform of the euro, which will go in the direction of its strengthening. 

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