Home Germany: An Arrhythmia at the Heart of Europe

GEAB 112

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Feb 2017

Germany: An Arrhythmia at the Heart of Europe

We anticipate that this European state will face several economic, cultural and political difficulties this year and next. First, the rise of the euro will hurt German exports; the stabilisation of oil prices prohibits the oxygen balloon effect of prices declines of 2015; failure of the migrant strategy puts Germany face to face with all the consequences of its weak demographics (in terms of domestic consumer market and potential for wage decline); there are centrifugal tendencies within the federation particularly with growing cultural and political divergences as in Bavaria; and finally the weight of East Germany is likely to become more and more unbearable for the productive Germany in this context.

Europe has had its fair share of change and turmoil over the last century, and in few places, has this been more prevalent than in Germany. Now, Germany is a pacifist nation, refraining from engaging in global military endeavours, which have proved costly and inconclusive for other Western nations. Since 1954, and using a more measured approach, Germany has slowly, but surely, emerged not only as Europe’s leader, but also as its champion. It first did this economically through its sophisticated methods of production, then fiscally through the development of its banking and finance sector and lately through the leadership of its Chancellor, Angela Merkel.

But can this level of success continue? Is Germany set to climb ever higher or start to sink into the quicksand of populist desire, which has begun to drown many a great nation?

Comments

To leave a comment sign up now
Contents

Within the global systemic crisis that we are now experiencing, our experts have been talking for some years about "statistical fog" to qualify the inability of today's tools to measure [...]

February 15-16 / Astana: Next round of peace talks on Syria The peace in Syria initiative launched by Russia, Turkey and Iran in the wake of the December 29 ceasefire [...]

The post-Brexit Europe does not need the extreme right-wings, it is already lining up with the national-European model proposed by the British. The antagonism between European and national levels, which [...]

Here and there we may read some optimistic analyses on the European property market, saying either that the "revival" is here, that the sector is in good health, and so [...]

Euro: keep believing in it! The LEAP team now believes that the more we are told about the difficulties of the euro, the more we must hear "course change needed" [...]

Related articles
GEAB
12 Aug 2022

War in Ukraine: A Chronicle of a never-ending era

#europe #geopolitics #governance #NATO #Ukraine

For our traditional dive into the archives in August, we have logically chosen the major theme of this year 2022: the entry of Russian forces in Ukraine. The interest of [...]

GEAB
15 Jul 2022

Visions and key dates in tomorrow’s space agenda

#anticipation #economy #governance #newtech #space

Between the desire for supremacy and the wish to use space as a catalyst for a new economy, the vision that nations have of their place in space is remarkably [...]

GEAB
15 Jul 2022

The space economy in 2030: A clash of titans and a shock of realities

#economy #europe #governance #space #USA

Young, even infant, the space market has grown by 70% since 2010 and is expected to reach a trillion dollars in annual revenues by 2040. One might think that the [...]