Home Les bulletins GEAB GEAB 112 A political anticipation calendar of future events: February-May 2017

GEAB 112

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Feb 2017

A political anticipation calendar of future events: February-May 2017

February 15-16 / Astana: Next round of peace talks on Syria

The peace in Syria initiative launched by Russia, Turkey and Iran in the wake of the December 29 ceasefire agreement continues. The capital of Kazakhstan, Astana, will be hosting a new meeting on February 15 and 16, to which the United States, the United Nations and Jordan are invited. The United Nations had scheduled a meeting on the same subject on February 8 in Geneva, which they decided to postpone until February 20 in order to take into account the outcome of the Astana meetings. Progress was made with the integration of this initiative in the official international agenda, an integration desired by Russia despite Iran’s initial unfavourable opinion. Note the total absence of the EU or any European country in this negotiating work, by the way.

February 17-19 / Munich: Security Conference

The US Vice President Mike Pence announced that he is attending the Munich Security Conference, along with the new UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, the EU Council President Donald Tusk and the EU Diplomacy high representative Frederica Mogherini. On the agenda, the following topics are to be discussed: the future of transatlantic relations and NATO after the election of D. Trump; the state of European cooperation in terms of security and defence; the Ukrainian crisis and relations with Russia; the war in Syria; the security situation in the Asia-Pacific region; terrorism; information warfare and climate threats.

February 20 / Geneva: Peace talks on Syria under UN auspices

If the Astana meetings are used to further exert pressure for the best possible respect for the cease-fire of December 29, their articulation with the UN-sponsored peace process 2016 is essential. Thus, four days after the next meeting of Astana, the UN special envoy for Syria, Steffan Mistura, has to hold a new round of negotiations after a complete halt in the process since April 2016. A delegation composed of 21 members has just been announced; they will represent the Syrian opposition against the representatives of the government.

Comments

To leave a comment sign up now
In summary

Within the global systemic crisis that we are now experiencing, our experts have been talking for some years about "statistical fog" to qualify the inability of today's tools to measure [...]

We anticipate that this European state will face several economic, cultural and political difficulties this year and next. First, the rise of the euro will hurt German exports; the stabilisation [...]

The post-Brexit Europe does not need the extreme right-wings, it is already lining up with the national-European model proposed by the British. The antagonism between European and national levels, which [...]

Here and there we may read some optimistic analyses on the European property market, saying either that the "revival" is here, that the sector is in good health, and so [...]

Euro: keep believing in it! The LEAP team now believes that the more we are told about the difficulties of the euro, the more we must hear "course change needed" [...]

Related articles
Geta Grama-Moldovan
15 Nov 2019

Investments, trends and recommendations (Nov 2019)

#cryptos #energy #finance #gold #investment #oil

Aramco's IPO: another game-changer Saudi Aramco is a wonderful illustration of the problem that we see beginning to be solved in 2020 with the establishment of a new monetary and [...]

Geta Grama-Moldovan
15 Nov 2019

Digital Euro: From Eurozone to Eurozon.com 

#cryptos #euro #Eurozone #finance #gafa #investment

We have been anticipating the arrival of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) for a year. And it was Christine Lagarde's speeches at the IMF last November, in particular, that encouraged [...]

Geta Grama-Moldovan
15 Nov 2019

The anger of the people: “It’s politics, Stupid!”

#China #democracy #europe #geopolitics #society

Popular protests are growing and multiplying: from Arab spring, Occupy Wall Street, Indignados, Maidan, populist votes, to the yellow vests, Iraq, Algeria, demonstrations against global warming, Hong Kong, Lebanon, Venezuela, [...]