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The BRICS’ difficulties in building a suitably influential financial system can be explained by their internal divisions. In 2026, we expect Asia to take over and lay the foundations for a new regional financial order. In the face of Western control and extraterritorial sanctions, the major Asian powers will create independent infrastructures of international importance. […]
Until now, it has been a question of preventing China from overtaking the United States in terms of technology. In 2025, not only will the West realise that China has already overtaken it, but above all that it is not China but the whole of Asia that has overtaken it: not just in terms of […]
The fundamental principles of the Internet in 1995 included free access and technological democratisation. For the most part, the information highways launched at the time seemed to be offered to the public with a humanistic and humanitarian goal: universal access to knowledge. Then, in 2009, Big Tech began to take control of Web 2.0 (the […]
The transformation of the global landscape is no longer simply a matter of Chinese technological or economic dominance. We are witnessing the emergence of a new world order structured by China, in which technology is just one of the many threads in a complex web woven with remarkable strategic precision. This silent revolution is not […]
While Europeans have their eyes firmly fixed on the headlights of the Trump-Musk duo, China, Vietnam, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia have just celebrated the start of the Year of the Snake. Sealing in the violence of the preceding Dragon, the Snake symbolises moulting, growth, flexibility, long-term thinking and wisdom. These symbols resonate very […]
Oil: Expect a short-term rise fueled by geopolitical tensions If you have read our overview and trends for 2025, you will know that our team is relatively optimistic that the conflicts between China and the United States and between Russia and Ukraine will be resolved in 2025. However, this will not happen immediately, and tensions […]
Over a hundred of you clicked on the link to the questionnaire we included in the article “Who will be the next public enemy No. 1?” This demonstrates a genuine desire for interaction, which we are thrilled to see and will certainly offer again. In response to the first closed question, “Do you agree with […]
The past few years have been defined by a series of global upheavals that have challenged financial globalisation as we’ve known it. In 2025, these disruptions will reach a critical juncture, compelling central banks to reassess their priorities. As stewards of price stability, they will need to adapt to events that will have lasting inflationary […]
Europe’s geopolitical game of musical chairs End of the war in Ukraine During the first half of the year, a peace agreement will have been signed between the Russians and the Ukrainians, with the help of the United States and China, by bringing major new players like Turkey to the table. The terms of the […]
With the US withdrawal from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict now in sight, Europe will be forced to confront its own responsibilities and the European edifice will likely crumble under the weight of reality. As we’ve previously mentioned[1], Europe’s ideological straitjacket will be violently challenged in 2025, marking one of the defining features of the year, in […]
The start of January marks the 19th anniversary of your faithful monthly bulletin. We extend our gratitude for your extraordinary support, which has made these years of publication possible. If we are still here, it is also because of the relevance of our anticipation method – a method that proved its value as early as […]
Central Asia: Nuclear power as a strategic lever Central Asia, rich in natural resources, is increasingly exploring nuclear power for its energy needs. Kazakhstan, the world’s largest producer of uranium, is aiming to build its first nuclear power station[1], with the support of China. Uzbekistan, which is also rich in uranium, has signed agreements with […]
Many people view digital data as the oil of the 21st century, but the natural resources required to produce it are rare earth elements. Beyond digital technology, rare earths are equally crucial for key sectors such as defense and the ecological transition. Naturally, they will be at the center of geopolitical rivalries between the major […]
According to Aaron Holmes[1], Microsoft is now pitching “Spend less on people”. While AI is certainly the next stage in the long process of optimising human resources in the production apparatus – enabling more to be produced with constant HR – it also means, above all, that humans are going to become increasingly valuable. We […]
Our team is proud to present its self-evaluaiton of the 2024 trends published in January. This year we have recorded a 74.19% success rate. Several events were accurately anticipated from the start of the year: the defection of at least one of the two US presidential candidates, the dissolution of the government in France and […]
As economic and political instability intensifies, our team takes a closer look at the forecasts of the major Western financial institutions. Between optimism and underestimated risks, these reports are as full of lessons as they are surprisingly consistent. Given the growing instability in international economic and political affairs, our team has decided to redouble its […]
The answer that immediately comes to mind is: “China, of course”! But that’s too easy for the GEAB, so we won’t be going down that route in this article. Instead of presenting our hypothesis right away, as we typically do, we prefer to keep you in suspense and take you on a journey. So, what’s […]
The concept of the interregnum has often been used in geopolitics in recent years. The imagery of a leaderless transition, a shift from one form of dominance to another, or the evolution from a unipolar to a multipolar world, all resonate strongly with our current moment. In this context, we apply the concept to a […]