Home Les bulletins GEAB GEAB 115 Calendar of Future Events: May / September 2017

GEAB 115

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 May 2017

Calendar of Future Events: May / September 2017

May 19 – Iran: presidential election

A serious opponent is now threatening the chances of re-election of the reformist Hassan Rohani. This man is the ultra-conservative Ebrahim Raissi, reinforced by the great geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran: war against Saudi Arabia in Yemen, involvement in the Syrian conflict, Israeli threats of aggression, risk of questioning the nuclear agreement coming from the new US presidency, etc. However, Mr. Rohani’s chances are still high if nothing special happens before the election. His re-election at the head of Iran would remove the ground from the feet of all those who need an aggressive Iran to justify their own actions, increasing international pressure for the identification of peaceful solutions. We are particularly thinking of the current dilemma facing Israel since Mr. Trump lifted the obligation to comply with the two-state solution. Now Israel is solely responsible for its policy and by putting into perspective the one-state solution, all the problems related to the implementation of this solution compel the leaders to admit that it is necessary to resolutely choose the two-state solution or else consider a real war in which actors like Russia or Turkey could take part … especially if Iran appears as a victim.

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