Home Investments, trends and recommendations (May 2017)

GEAB 115

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 May 2017

Investments, trends and recommendations (May 2017)

Oil – It’s working

In spite of many interests that obviously want to minimise the impact of the agreement on oil production between OPEC and its allies, and doubts related to the sustainability of the deal, it seems that Russians and Saudis are planning to extend the Vienna Agreement[1] until – at least – the end of this year. The tug-of-war between the North American shale industry and the oil-producing nations is, according to us, less of an arm wrestling contest, than a trap. Shale producers are also negatively impacted by decreasing prices generated by their overproduction. In fact, they probably suffer more, not having the shock absorbers that the great nations usually have. The problem is that they are private actors, very difficult to coordinate with each other and to adapt to supranational logics. But our team believes that it is in the interest of these private producers to find a way for their chaotic levels of production to stop pitching prices. As for OPEC-NOPEC, in order to dilute the impact of non-agreement countries’ production (US, Brazil, Canada), one technique is to expand their group, which they actually plan to do this month by welcoming Egypt, and especially Turkmenistan. Excluding any major geopolitical shocks, we continue to anticipate prices around $50 a barrel with small recurring episodes of adrenaline causing relatively rapid counter-reactions to the oil price increase.

Comments

To leave a comment sign up now
Contents

The voice of France in the world seemed to have disappeared (at least since 2007), which is a far cry from the brilliance of French diplomacy in 2003 when the [...]

May 19 - Iran: presidential election A serious opponent is now threatening the chances of re-election of the reformist Hassan Rohani. This man is the ultra-conservative Ebrahim Raissi, reinforced by [...]

Since the Second World War, the moral domination of the West over the rest of the world has been largely based on the undeniable quality of its media, guarantors of [...]

Related articles
GEAB
15 Oct 2021

Investments, trends and recommendations (October)

#cryptos #energy #finance #investment #techvalues

Cash, gold, commodities and cryptos - A strong case  The above remarks reinforce our recommendations from last March "A short guide for investors in times of reflation/inflation". A new monetary [...]

GEAB
15 Oct 2021

Dollar: Time is running out

#crisis #currencies #dollar #finance

The dollar will collapse only if the United States decides to let it collapse. The country is now in a situation where it is getting closer to having to make [...]

GEAB
15 Sep 2021

Investments, trends and recommendations (sept 2021)

#bitcoin #dollar #investments #Raw materials #stocks

Bitcoin: wait and see // Dollar: last opportunity // Stocks: floating bombs in sight! // Dollar versus tech stocks // Commodities: Bonanza! ______________________________ Bitcoin: wait and see Unsurprisingly, Bitcoin regained [...]