Category: Perspective

35,500 billion euros is the total amount of European savings. It’s also the level of US federal debt. In twenty years, that debt has gone from 5% to 123% of GDP, generating an interest burden of 881 billion dollars – or 100 million every hour! Meanwhile, a tech bubble has masked the systemic cracks. Since […]

History has shown that even the most devastating wars sometimes lead to defining moments—when great treaties are signed, altering the course of the world. These agreements remain in history books not just for their impact, but for their ability to carve a path forward from a seemingly deadlocked future: Westphalia, Versailles, Yalta… and soon, perhaps, […]

While Europeans have their eyes firmly fixed on the headlights of the Trump-Musk duo, China, Vietnam, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia have just celebrated the start of the Year of the Snake. Sealing in the violence of the preceding Dragon, the Snake symbolises moulting, growth, flexibility, long-term thinking and wisdom. These symbols resonate very […]

The start of January marks the 19th anniversary of your faithful monthly bulletin. We extend our gratitude for your extraordinary support, which has made these years of publication possible. If we are still here, it is also because of the relevance of our anticipation method – a method that proved its value as early as […]

The concept of the interregnum has often been used in geopolitics in recent years. The imagery of a leaderless transition, a shift from one form of dominance to another, or the evolution from a unipolar to a multipolar world, all resonate strongly with our current moment. In this context, we apply the concept to a […]

Will oxymorons ever run dry? The boring apocalypse is an astonishing concept, but one that resonates well at a time of rapid, sweeping change, where unprecedented, terrifying risks loom large — threats that evoke deep existential dread. Yet, as each day dawns, the world seems unchanged. The collapse is perpetually imminent but seemingly never arrives. […]

This issue reminds everyone (readers and writers alike) of the extent of the statistical fog currently defining our times. In choosing demography this month, you may say that we focused on a reliable, factual field. Birth rates, the recording of births and deaths, as well as censuses are widespread and deeply rooted practices around the […]

« We cannot solve the problems using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them”, said Albert Einstein[1]. Does this also apply to institutions? If there’s one nuance our team holds dear, it’s this: the European Union and Europe are two different realities. The EU has grown so much in recent years that […]

Since our bulletin’s launch in 2006 under the direction of Franck Biancheri, one of our key missions has been to anticipate what we theorised as the “global systemic crisis”, which became evident in 2008[1]. Since then, the GEAB has consistently sought to identify the next phases in the transformation of our globalised world. Our analysis […]

The remarkable speed of generative AI tools is one of their most striking features. Anyone who has used ChatGPT or similar tools, whether for business or leisure, cannot help but be impressed by their rapid execution. This speed masks another: the rapidity of the rise of generative AI which has reignited the notion of infinite […]

Perhaps this intuition has crossed your mind, or you may have even voiced it, as you increasingly rely on credit cards or smartphones for payments instead of cash. But have you truly pondered it? Our team embarked on this exercise, posing a simple question: What if money disappeared… permanently? Of course, we’re referring to cash. […]

© Kerozen Concept (AI generated image) In a world where upheavals are occurring with increasing frequency, it’s easy to value the constants. The American presidential elections are always a thrilling soap opera. The motherland of Hollywood knows how to captivate the attention of the rest of the world, and this season is no exception. With the traditional […]

© Kerozen Concept (AI generated image) Will the European project survive the Orwellian moment in which it finds itself entangled? The European Union, long asserting itself as the sole guarantor of peace on the continent, now appears ready to deploy its operations in service of war, all in the name of securing peace, of course. […]

The current surge in grandiose projects for cities conceived ex nihilo as pure utopias is a sign of the times… … a characteristic signal of multiple and simultaneous ruptures: the geographical shift of power and wealth, the concentration of stratospheric financial resources resulting from the oil-consumption era into a few hands and the maturation of […]

“Be greedy when others are fearful”[1] The great feature of 2024 is its jam-packed electoral calendar. This year, almost three billion people will be voting in 76 countries, including major ones like India, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, Russia, South Africa, Algeria, Rwanda and, of course, the United States. All these countries find themselves in a […]

Similar to the gradual movement of continents, the reshaping of the global order is a protracted and gradual phenomenon when examined on a monthly scale. While marked by intense clashes that give rise to mountain ranges and definitive separations resulting in straits, seas, or oceans, geopolitical plate tectonics unfolds over an extended period. Between the […]

Anticipation means always looking a little further ahead and striving to think the unthinkable. So, when all the signs point to destruction, to collapse, we need to remain clear-headed so as not to overlook the elements of renewal, the signs of creation. Joseph Schumpeter and his theory of creative destruction is useful in this regard. […]

The transition from the world ‘before’ to the world ‘after’ that we have so often analysed and commented on in our publications continues. Today, this transition is taking on a violent aspect. The Russian-Ukrainian war marks a return to armed conflict on the European continent. The absence of a speedy resolution underscores the challenges in […]