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GEAB 140

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Dec 2019

Investments, trends and recommendations (Dec 2019)

Corporate: Watch your back! 

The world is realigning itself according to its major regions. This trend, identified a long time ago by the GEAB and repeatedly validated, obviously doesn’t only concern government dynamics. It has direct consequences for companies as well. Particularly this one: don’t abandon your foundations! Certainly, a company needs to grow. And the relocation of production and/or the exploitation of emerging markets promises short-term profits. But beware! These emerging markets are filling up with local competition that is getting stronger and is now largely supported by more nationalistic governments than before. These markets are welcoming to foreign companies that bring them employment and know-how, but they are not slow to duplicate and improve this know-how. Worse still, this emerging competition will make its mark and establish itself in the West, so that, when Western companies find they need to return home, their place will already be taken. A more sedentary globalisation is taking place and it is time for everyone, including companies, to secure their backs, to have their strategic retreat plans well updated and to study the conditions for their survival in a context of tightening competition and a slowing dynamic of quantitative growth. The future is open for qualitative development focused on home markets.

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In summary

The coming year is not just any year, but 2020! LEAP is one of the offshoots of Franck Biancheri's Reinventing Europe project inaugurated in Athens in 1998, which gave birth [...]

This in-depth assessment of our anticipations for the year will be used to update our map of major global transformational trends. We present here a synthesis of a year of [...]

As we do every December, we have completed an evaluation of the trend anticipations we published last January. This time, we have ended up with a final score of 27.5 [...]

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