Home Les bulletins GEAB GEAB 136 Oil – Surfing an ebbing wave

GEAB 136

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Jun 2019

Oil – Surfing an ebbing wave

We are now well into the fifth – and probably last – wave of the oil era. All the conditions needed for us to leave behind our oil dependency are now in place: an anticipation of the exhaustibility of the resource, an awareness of environmental issues, the presence of new economic players sufficiently independent of existing oil lobbies to initiate change (namely China), the industrial production of alternative solutions (electric vehicles), etc … The setbacks General Electric has experienced following its bet on fossil fuels testify to the effectiveness of the energy transition agenda embodied by the Paris Agreements.[1]

All that remains now is to limit the damage inflicted by the transition out of this core sector of the previous global economic system. The present price volatility is showing how difficult it is for the oil sector to maintain high prices: despite US sanctions against the biggest producers (Iran, Venezuela), despite OPEC’s attempts to boost prices via output cuts[2] and despite the closure of the industry’s American shale drilling sites,[3] it may only take a war in the Middle-East to bring prices above $70-80 per barrel (and probably not for long, knowing all the opt-out solutions available to the global economy).

In fact, the most influential producing countries are currently striving to delay their own economic hard landing by redirecting it towards others in general and towards their enemies in particular. Cuts in market share are being imposed on Iran and Venezuela in order to buy more time for Saudi Arabia and the United States.


To leave a comment sign up now
In summary

Reports are currently proliferating concerning the health of the European banking sector ten years after its great crisis. However, on the one hand, the European banks only managed to get [...]

Under the impetuous blows of the global systemic crisis, the automatic pilot system (technocracy), that determined our direction and cruising speed until 2008, is gradually coming to an end. The [...]

The ongoing trade war between the US and China has recently taken a new turn with the involvement of the digital giants, under obvious pressure from the White House. Alleging [...]

Interview with Eric Leandri, CEO of Qwant CEO and co-founder of the French search engine Qwant, Éric Leandri shares with GEAB readers his conviction that the US-China trade war offers [...]

Crypto-currencies: Gold 2.0? With the greatest caution, playing the diversification and flexibility game to reduce possible risks, we advise you to start investing in the cryptos that now have safe-haven [...]

Related articles
Geta Grama-Moldovan
15 Nov 2019

Investments, trends and recommendations (Nov 2019)

#cryptos #energy #finance #gold #investment #oil

Aramco's IPO: another game-changer Saudi Aramco is a wonderful illustration of the problem that we see beginning to be solved in 2020 with the establishment of a new monetary and [...]

Geta Grama-Moldovan
15 Nov 2019

Digital Euro: From Eurozone to Eurozon.com 

#cryptos #euro #Eurozone #finance #gafa #investment

We have been anticipating the arrival of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) for a year. And it was Christine Lagarde's speeches at the IMF last November, in particular, that encouraged [...]

Geta Grama-Moldovan
15 Oct 2019

Investments, trends and recommendations (Oct 2019)

#cryptos #finance #gas #investments #oil

Monetary Policy – beware of the direction change The shift towards the green colour of the economic indicators linked to the reduction in trade tensions at the end of the [...]