Category: geopolitics
It is not a bipolar world that will result from the current war between the West and Russia, but the collapse of 500 years of Eurocentric global civilisation, at the core of which we see Europe, Russia and Ukraine mainly. This will have the US, China and the rest of the world involved not necessarily […]
In the middle of a storm, it is difficult to keep one’s eyes on the horizon. Instead, you see the sky pitching, you hear the sails slamming, you get the spray in your face, everyone screams their fears and angers, and this translates in losing one’s grounding. This is how we should understand the uproar […]
Among the few certainties to be formulated about the Russian-Ukrainian war, there is this one: it is the end of the Cold War! … in that it has now become “hot”, which mainly changes everything. As we have already said about the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan last September[1], 1989 was not “the end” […]
As Russians and Americans clash on both sides of the EU’s Eastern borders, let us summarise our analysis of the strategy being carried out and the objectives being pursued. In our opinion, a game is being played around Ukraine to move the lines of the trap into which everyone fell in 2014 and which represents […]
A cluster of major trends 2022 is shaping up to be a complicated year… After the great pause of 2020, 2021 tried to make it look like things would return to normal. Instead, as we anticipated at the beginning of last year, every hint of recovery has led to new fractures in the old system: […]
As we noted last year, the health crisis has accelerated all the systemic transformation projects that had been languishing hopelessly in the back of drawers of our governments and companies paralysed by routine. The GEAB’s job is to study trends, prospects for change and strategies that decision-makers are putting in place to prepare for them, […]
In Germany, three parties have just successfully created a new government in record time through the signing of a coalition treaty[1] and the election of Scholz by the Bundestag. Our team wishes to share a selection of highlights from this 177-page text as they are formulated. Indeed it is an important “brick of the future” […]
As you may have noticed, the last “populists” on the planet are all in trouble. They are no longer in fashion obviously. The new generations propelled to the forefront of post-Covid shock societies do not recognise themselves in the populists. Opposition is better organised. This is what we said two months ago about Eastern Europe, […]
Elon Musk has just been named Man of the year.[1] Yet the SpaceX empire faces a new threat: a technological disruption. His promises have become a global communication success, reaching right up to the highest levels of power. However, they come up against technical reality, like any promise of innovation. Space is Hard: it applies […]
The shadow of Web3 is now looming on the horizon.[1] It is already presenting itself as a new revolution, 25 years after the arrival of the Internet, from which our societies are only just beginning to recover. A new stage of decentralisation and disintermediation, a reaffirmation of Internet user’s freedoms (robbed by Web 2.0 and […]
The First World War was the result of unsurpassable alliances that have become anachronistic. The alliance with America is both outdated and unsurpassable in the 21st century: outdated because the world needs all its actors to work together to solve the immense challenges of the 21st century; unsurpassable because of the series of alliances. The […]
The new military alliance between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States (AUKUS) illustrates nothing more than a reheating of the Cold War between China and the West. In this barely concealed confrontation, blocs are beginning to take shape: in the West, an Anglo-Saxon bloc in the midst of an attempt to recompose itself […]
To avoid the collapse of the dollar, Biden (as well as Trump before him) is betting on a Keynesian plan to rebuild the country’s infrastructure and social and health care system, designed to bring the billions of foreign investments flowing around the world back to America. To do this, the White House, Congress and the […]
In Afghanistan, the Taliban are back in power and history is picking up where it left off exactly 20 years ago. However, those 20 years of Afghanistan’s mire have occurred, changing the course history would have taken. Wars, terrorism, destruction, displacement, new players, … the whole world had to rush to the bedside of a […]
MULTIPOLARISATION: what is it? Since 2006, the GEAB’s mission has been to analyse the very large systemic transition in which the world is struggling in order to anticipate its next turns and help its readers to make the right adaptation decisions in due time. This work is based on what we call ‘interpretive railways’ that […]
As Biden puts the kibosh on US anti-China rhetoric – by reversing Trump’s actions against TikTok and WeChat,[1] for example – our team anticipates that a far more fundamental systemic rivalry will soon become evident: that between the UK and China. And make no mistake: the forces at play are far less unbalanced than they […]
Whether or not one believes in the prophecy of Saint Malachi, who identified Pope Francis II as Peter the Roman (the last of a line of 112 popes)[1] one thing is certain: in the inevitably very symbolic and probably somewhat superstitious universe of the seat of the Catholic Church, this kind of “anticipation”, active since […]
The ideological revolution of the European Union (EU) imposes a corresponding structural revolution. 2020 has accelerated all the trends of systemic transformation. But in 2021, this free flight into the interstellar void of our locked down planet will experience the turbulence of its entry into the atmosphere of the ‘world-after’. For the last 20 years, […]