Home Geopolitics of global investments: 2023 – 2030, transatlantic trade war and pole reversal in the new multipolar world

GEAB 170

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Dec 2022

Geopolitics of global investments: 2023 – 2030, transatlantic trade war and pole reversal in the new multipolar world

If we take the geopolitics of foreign direct investment (FDI)[1] in the loop, the map of the new multipolar world naturally comes out. Its analysis allows us to anticipate this current and future recomposition. Three poles remain clearly identifiable for the time being: the United States in the lead and set to stay there, China, holding the race before embarking on a new strategy, and Europe, embodied by Germany, lagging behind and set to be even further behind.

The element having mostly marked us during our research is the reversal of roles between China and the United States. With the Inflation Reduction Act, Uncle Sam will pursue a policy of attracting investments and showing a (re)opening to the world comparable to that of Deng Xiaoping in China in the 1970s. China will take advantage of its economic-diplomatic work in recent years to project itself within its continent and then beyond to the rest of the world, “buying” back Africa, trying to “steal” South America from the Americans, in a clear resemblance to the United States post-World War II and its Marshall Plan.

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