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Category: geopolitics

Editorial: When Access to Human Resources becomes a Geopolitical challenge

International relations and geopolitical tensions are fuelled by a myriad of factors, the most well-known of which is access to mineral resources and agricultural products. The microprocessor war reveals new tensions linked to the new economies.[1] Indeed, as soon as a resource essential to the smooth running of an economy becomes scarce, the framework for […]

Degrowth: The major challenges of the global demographic winter

Our work in anticipation and the reflection on time that it encourages, have made us particularly sensitive to the fact that we do not all live in the same temporalities. One person’s future is another’s present or past, both in terms of our objective reality (e.g. technological) and our understanding of that reality (accurate but […]

2023 – 2025: US Banking Crisis, Bank Run, European Digital Wallets, Digital Currencies and Cryptos: The Necessary Break for the Reinvention of the Western Economic System

Never let a crisis go to waste. The US regional banking crisis continues to gather pace. As out of control as the situation seems, our team believes that the American and European political and financial authorities see it as a necessary evil to reinvent their economic system. This reinvention is a matter of survival for […]

Editorial – Regulation, war, ChatGPT: 2023, the cognitive collapse of the Internet

We hear a lot about the end of civilisation linked to the arrival of AI, which ChatGPT has made clear for everyone. Human beings would have no or very little added value from now on, AI would be so much more than HI… We have news from the future that is both reassuring and disturbing. […]

Water Wars 2025: The Geopolitics of Europe’s resources

Climate change has been shifting our relationship with water, bringing power and politics into human rights issues of access and management, because the powerless is particularly hit by this. Besides the question of access to safe water for domestic use, it is also a matter of sovereignty over the landscape.[1] Water also serves many purposes […]

2023-2025: The throes of the disappearance of the dollar as an international currency

For almost 20 years we have been anticipating a revolution in the international monetary system and in particular the emancipation of the global economy from the trade vehicle of the 20th century, the dollar.[1] Apparently, nothing has happened, the reason being that no one had any interest in the dollar disappearing overnight. So, the whole […]

Editorial – Global systemic crisis: The new world is dumping the old one

For 17 years, the GEAB has been characterising one by one the phases of the global systemic transition process. As of April 2023, it is very clear that the “new world” (led by the BRICS), after a slow and uncertain revival almost 15 years ago, is now beginning its take-off phase. The new world is […]

Eyes on the future: “We are living through the last decade of the Oil Age”

The following article is the result of discussions between the GEAB editorial team and Dr Louis Arnoux. The latter’s work is far more alarmist than most research in the same field, namely the future of the oil industry and oil as a fuel for the world economy. The results and data discussed below, even though […]

Calendar of future events – a special focus on elections 2023/2024

We are not going to draw up a calendar of all the elections, but of those which seem to us to be the most significant. In 2023, for example, ten African states will hold national elections: Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon, Liberia, Libya (if they are not postponed again), Madagascar, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, […]

Editorial: SVB’s bankruptcy – Systemic risk, end of innovation and strong euro

Dragging in its wake the Silvergate and Signature banks, the Silicon Valley Bank’s bankruptcy (SVB) remains the sad event illustrating this GEAB issue of March: as analysed/anticipated over the past three years, after the lyrical flights of Western tech at the start of the Covid crisis, painful returns to reality would inevitably be the batch […]

Ukraine in Europe 2023: The Unsustainability of the European Pyramid

Ukrainian refugees now live in Europe under a special status called temporary protection, modelled after a similar status created by the US at the end of the Cold War. While this status offers them privileged benefits, it also exacerbates the difficulties Europe faces, which we illustrate with a deep dive into the German situation. This […]

India 2023 – 2024: Trophy of the War of all Worlds

While the West is gradually withdrawing its assets from China in anticipation of worsening tensions between the West and the Middle Kingdom,[1] and is becoming aware that its reindustrialisation is facing innumerable difficulties (financial, environmental, human), India appears to be the ideal replacement solution: a large and cheap workforce,[2] a desire for development “at all […]

2024-Ramaphosa is re-elected as coalition President: En route to the African Continental Free Trade Area

Article written by Michael Kahn, an independent adviser on innovation anticipation, policy, monitoring and evaluation. Professor Kahn is honorary Research Fellow at Stellenbosch University and Professor of Practice in the University of Johannesburg, He works with governments, the multilateral organisations, NGOs and higher education. His most recent publications are the UNESCO GO-SPIN Report for Mozambique, a […]

2024 – Summit of the Future: Last chance for the United Nations, the last Western bastion of an ex-bipolar world

It was agreed in September 2020 that the UN will mark its 75th anniversary with a Summit of the Future, an event to be held at the end of 2024. The stakes are historic: to provide a supranational political framework for the multipolar world, which is currently settling in a chaotic manner due to the […]

1923-2023, from one falling empire to another. Geopolitics, economy, finance: The mega-trends of 2023

One hundred years ago this year, the Ottoman Empire collapsed.[1] Officially born in 1299, it was mainly with the capture of Constantinople in 1453 that the empire was born from a European perspective. Until a hundred years ago, for more than five centuries, Europeans and Ottomans lived side by side, brothers and enemies and sometimes […]

Editorial: A not so bad year 2023 to you all!

To begin this year, our team would like to warmly thank all of our readers who responded to the questionnaire we sent you in our previous issue. Many of you have expressed interest and enthusiasm in the idea of building a space for research, reflection and anticipation, in which we can share our knowledge and […]

Vision Smart Nation 2030: Belgian and European ambitions… what about the means?

Belgium sets out ten ambitions for a path and a horizon (2030) “with the aim of contributing to Belgian and European digital sovereignty”.[1]  We decided to take a quick look at this vision, because we see it as a weak signal of European ownership, on a national and supranational scale. Belgium is an influential nation […]

Geopolitics of global investments: 2023 – 2030, transatlantic trade war and pole reversal in the new multipolar world

If we take the geopolitics of foreign direct investment (FDI)[1] in the loop, the map of the new multipolar world naturally comes out. Its analysis allows us to anticipate this current and future recomposition. Three poles remain clearly identifiable for the time being: the United States in the lead and set to stay there, China, […]