Category: geopolitics
In Afghanistan, the Taliban are back in power and history is picking up where it left off exactly 20 years ago. However, those 20 years of Afghanistan’s mire have occurred, changing the course history would have taken. Wars, terrorism, destruction, displacement, new players, … the whole world had to rush to the bedside of a […]
MULTIPOLARISATION: what is it? Since 2006, the GEAB’s mission has been to analyse the very large systemic transition in which the world is struggling in order to anticipate its next turns and help its readers to make the right adaptation decisions in due time. This work is based on what we call ‘interpretive railways’ that […]
As Biden puts the kibosh on US anti-China rhetoric – by reversing Trump’s actions against TikTok and WeChat,[1] for example – our team anticipates that a far more fundamental systemic rivalry will soon become evident: that between the UK and China. And make no mistake: the forces at play are far less unbalanced than they […]
Whether or not one believes in the prophecy of Saint Malachi, who identified Pope Francis II as Peter the Roman (the last of a line of 112 popes)[1] one thing is certain: in the inevitably very symbolic and probably somewhat superstitious universe of the seat of the Catholic Church, this kind of “anticipation”, active since […]
The ideological revolution of the European Union (EU) imposes a corresponding structural revolution. 2020 has accelerated all the trends of systemic transformation. But in 2021, this free flight into the interstellar void of our locked down planet will experience the turbulence of its entry into the atmosphere of the ‘world-after’. For the last 20 years, […]
Many of us have grown up in countries where access to water is taken for granted; where a constant and secure supply of clean water has become the norm. Safe drinking wFater is freely available ‘on tap’ whenever and wherever we need it, while huge amounts are being wasted – flushed or poured away with […]
In March 2019 our teams published a Reader’s Digest of the anticipations found on the net with the first key date of 2020 for which some analysts had announced the next global crash. A crash that did not happen (in line with our doubts in this regard). Admittedly, from the beginning of the year, Covid-19 […]
Particularly three phenomena concur to the distortion of our collective understanding of reality: the economic and mobility slowdown, the collapse of information systems linked to the pandemic, and the election of Joe Biden. All this creates a dangerous illusion of “calm after the storm” resulting in reduced vigilance. Therefore, and despite the whole bunch of […]
One of the main points of instability in the reformed system emerging today is how out of touch leaders are. This year, we’ve scraped the barrel and it’s undermining all the progress made through reform, modernising and reinforcing stability in the system. The fact that the benefits of these reforms will not immediately be visible […]
The post-election statement made by German Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (“The idea of European strategic independence goes too far if it nurtures the illusion that we can ensure Europe’s security, stability and prosperity without NATO and the U.S.”)[1] requires France to revise its defence strategies and priorities. We anticipate that Macron’s desire to build a […]
2021 is full of events that could not be held in 2020 due to the pandemic. Some of these dates are still uncertain, and the 2021 Calendar that we’re setting out here may get overhauled, even though all the political economic and financial stakeholders have now gone through the digital looking glass and are holding […]
After the year of “reflection” that the long Covid break of 2020 has provided humanity,[1] Year One of the World After, or the “Digital Age”, takes us on a trip “through the looking glass”.[2] Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking Glass was written as a sequel to Alice in Wonderland in 1871, the year the German […]
Like any living organism, our world died in suffering, blood and excrement (and disease). Like any living organism, a new world is born in suffering, blood and excrement (and vaccination). The baby will grow and transform very quickly, crushing the freedom and the common sense of its parents. Then there will be the teenage tantrums, […]
The Covid-19 crisis has not brought about anything new. It only focusses the trends that were already at work. In doing so, it widens the gaps. Once this has been established, it is important not to make mistakes in analysing these trends. But it would seem that the West can’t see the wood for the […]
As 2020 is not a year like any other, we are looking forward to a different kind of year-end self-evaluation. As we did not include the impact of a pandemic in our January forecasts, despite the virus already being on radars at that time, we were concerned for the outcome of our annual assessing of […]
Sanctions have been decided! Well, almost… Indeed, the Heads of State and Government of the 27 EU Member States decided, at the European Council meeting that has just taken place on 10-11 December on new sanctions against Turkey for its “drilling” activities in the Eastern Mediterranean that have been deemed illegal. Sanctions will be specified […]
Despite the figures for the pandemic once again sky-rocketing, Biden – like Trump back in March – does not envisage a second lockdown.[1] The reality is that the United States cannot afford for the economy to be put on hold again. This excerpt from last June’s GEAB weighs up the potential damage. ” While Europeans […]
The Amazon is at risk of dying. We have known that for decades, but recent studies and political events have shown that the demise of the Amazonian rainforest is much quicker than previously thought. Paradoxically, the sector that most threatens the survival of the Amazon rainforest – agriculture – is also the one that will […]