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India: Modi in transition mode

“India’s shock election result” is the headline in Chatham House[1], “electoral surprise” for the American media… But our readers were certainly not so surprised by the election results in India, since we warned as early as 2023 that Modi would have difficulty securing his majority. The elections are part of the famous 2024 global electoral […]

2024 Electoral Calendar: Weak signals in a changing world

While two elections capture the world’s attention – the European elections in June and the US presidential election on 5 November – there are other elections on the international calendar that also merit our scrutiny to spot the subtle signals of a changing world landscape. The beginning of the year was marked by the Taiwanese […]

May-June 2024, Modi’s re-election? A not so easy path for India…

We continue our focus on India with this brief on the 2024 elections. The 543 Members of Parliament representing the 28 states + the 8 Indian territories will be elected. In 2024 Narendra Modi, then 74 years old, will have been at the head of the Indian government for 10 years and will be running […]

Will India be the tomb of the Western economy?

We anticipate that Narendra Modi’s Make in India strategy, fueled by the Anglo-Saxon anti-China strategy, will attract a good number of companies that will remain there – in all senses of the word. In line with our previous article on India, it is appropriate to warn our readers against the “Indian temptation” that is likely […]

India 2023 – 2024: Trophy of the War of all Worlds

While the West is gradually withdrawing its assets from China in anticipation of worsening tensions between the West and the Middle Kingdom,[1] and is becoming aware that its reindustrialisation is facing innumerable difficulties (financial, environmental, human), India appears to be the ideal replacement solution: a large and cheap workforce,[2] a desire for development “at all […]

Coming soon, the GEAB 139 (November issue). Synopsis

Social unrest is beginning to be perceived by the financial markets and economy as a possible trigger for the famous 2020 crisis: Demonstrations, increased public debt, budgetary crises, the redirection of debt from private to public, austerity, loss of confidence of economic and financial players, bankruptcies etc… In a context of economic slowdown, rising discontent […]

Mukesh Ambani, the Indian Jeff Bezos

Why him? Mukesh Ambani is not an emerging and promising young beginner. On the contrary, the 61-year-old has already made his mark as an Indian business magnate at the head of a conglomerate named Reliance Industries Ltd (a family business inherited from his father) that specialises in the petrochemical industry (being the world’s largest producer […]

The Agricultural crisis and rural exodus: A major challenge for Indian society

The crisis of the agricultural sector One sector experiencing a serious crisis, to which demonetisation was unable to respond, is agriculture. More than half of India’s population lives in rural areas, and agriculture, although it is no longer the main source of income, remains central[11]. Still, demonetisation had a positive effect by transferring subsidies directly […]

Multipolar World 2022: India’s Power Strategy via Washington

In view of China’s demographic being overtaken by India by 2022, India will use the structuring rivalry of the new world order emerging between the United States and China to advance its own interests, by operating a tactical rapprochement with Washington. This new partnership will be part of a struggle against Chinese trade surpluses and […]

European elections 2019: the allied far rights becomes the dominant parliamentary group in the European Parliament

This anticipation is not very original but it must nevertheless be faced with all the lucidity required. It is hardly a hypothesis, but rather a certainty: the allied European far rights will constitute the most consistent and therefore powerful parliamentary group in the next European Parliament, whatever their results in the previous national elections. What […]

Demon-etisation: India opens with a fanfare the ball of the fiscal QEs

Since November 8, 2016, India has created a monetary revolution of a magnitude never seen, both by the size of the population concerned and the depth of the transformation induced. By demonetising the biggest notes of 500 and 1000 Rs (rupees), the Indian government is trying to reintegrate into the official economy the state’s gigantic […]

US Business Schools: a case study in America’s failing Education System

US business schools, once considered as being the best management training institutes, are today witnessing a decline in trust and market value of their degrees. The failing state of the US business school model is due to many factors ingrained into its management, curricula and non-performance of the primary duties of educational institutions…(read more in […]

Chinese Crisis: Learning Lessons in Slow Riding the Economy

After an unbelievably long period of hectic growth, the Chinese economy has begun to slow down. While the high growth phase was characterised by remarkable stability, the phase of slower growth, if the present crisis is any indication, is likely to be more turbulent. Slow riding an economy is much more difficult a task than […]

2016 : The year of India… and the last chance for an organized systemic global transition

When LEAP launched the GEAB in January 2006 with the object of describing a “global systemic crisis” in the making, one of its aims was to help raise awareness amongst Europeans of the US’ weakness and of the opportunity which then existed to complete the continent’s independence process. This objective was not only motivated by […]