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2030 – Faster, riskier and ready to dominate – China’s New Space

By 2030, the balance of power in space will have shifted. China is catching up with the USA at an alarming rate, making orbit and the Moon the new strategic battlefields. In the face of this Star Wars, Europe and the other emerging powers risk being relegated to the background. The clash of the Chinese […]

2030 – Artificial Intelligence in the service of Peace

While two hot controversial conflicts, Ukraine/Russia and Israel/Gaza, are setting the world ablaze on our doorstep, the primary actors involved are unwilling to engage in peace negotiations unless their adversary is completely defeated. In the case of Ukraine and Russia, this stance remains unless significant changes occur, such as the disappearance of Putin. Similarly, regarding […]

Israel-Hamas: The Other Scenario… “Thinking the unthinkable”

The conflict will be resolved in the short term and will allow the region to integrate and open up to all its potential. This is what we presented last month, in line with our work on the future of the Middle East over the last seventeen years. This scenario stays solid, we think. However, it […]

Geopolitics: The logic of force returns

Logically, the international governance invented by the West after two world wars to create the conditions for peace was based on the defence of weak players (Palestinians, Armenians, Saharawis, etc.) against strong players (Israel, Azerbaijan, Morocco, etc.). It is morally undeniable that a peace system is designed to curb the expansionist ambitions of those who […]

Editorial: When weapons are all that’s left to communicate

The transition from the world ‘before’ to the world ‘after’ that we have so often analysed and commented on in our publications continues. Today, this transition is taking on a violent aspect. The Russian-Ukrainian war marks a return to armed conflict on the European continent. The absence of a speedy resolution underscores the challenges in […]

Global humanitarian crisis: Europe at the epicentre of a world war (again)

The First World War was the result of unsurpassable alliances that have become anachronistic. The alliance with America is both outdated and unsurpassable in the 21st century: outdated because the world needs all its actors to work together to solve the immense challenges of the 21st century; unsurpassable because of the series of alliances. The […]

Middle East 2020: Towards a New Political Deal

Wars have undoubtedly generated plagues. But do plagues generate wars? From a systemic point of view, the pandemic should be enough to seal the fate of the old system, inaugurate the next one and save us from going down the “war” route… that is if, indeed, this route has really been avoided. Let us remember […]

What will post-COVID-19 Europe look like?

Reduced mobility,[1] the tourism crisis,[2] the green economy,[3] dematerialisation of the economy,[4] Euroland,[5] digitalisation of central bank currencies,[6] a radical reform of the international financial system, disruption of the European banking system,[7] the end of liberalism, a paradigm shift and, even, our anticipation of a stabilisation phase in 2020[8]… As we entered this new decade, […]

Turkish Elections – The impossibility of chaos in Turkey

We have repeatedly analyzed that only the regional powers would be able to restore calm in the Middle East and resolve the Daesh issue, the common enemy on which (almost) everyone has agreed. However, we have stated that the US or Russian interventions would only have the effect of exacerbating tensions. Repeatedly missed opportunities Suffice […]