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Category: Focus

Anticipations 2017: 16 Up and 19 Down – 35 Key Trends

Every year, LEAP/E2020 is offering you a short overview of the up and down[1] trends of the year which is starting. In addition to the intellectual interest of this contribution of LEAP/E2020, which of course reflects many of our researchers’ analyses over the past few months, it aims at providing a better perception of priorities […]

An evaluation of our anticipations for 2016 (drawn from GEAB n° 101 of January 2016): 75% success

Each year in December, we evaluate our trend anticipations made in January. This month, we come across a final score of 25.5 out of 34, meaning a 75% success rate; two points more than last year. The year 2014 and the great turmoil caused by the Euro-Russian shock that drove us below the 70% success […]

The EU: Sailing in a raging storm with no navigation equipment

The editorial GEAB team decided to share, exceptionally, with its readers an excerpt of the as yet unpublished document entitled “Community or Empire”; a book written by Franck Biancheri in 1992. This excerpt evokes the importance for the EU’s endowing with a forecasting capacity to adapt its governance to the challenges of its reopening to […]

US Isolation: When global finance turns away from the dollar system, it means the cliff is near

The United States has been voluntarily isolating itself from the rest of the world, and not just from a geopolitical point of view. This terrible isolation can only get worse, whatever the result of the presidential election: if Trump wins, it will be due to a lack of foreign policy; in the case of Clinton, […]

Regional economic unions (2016-2017): Between Apparent Failure and Underlying Recovery

It seems that everything is going wrong for regional integrations. South America’s MERCOSUR trading bloc has completely stopped functioning, due to the marginalisation of Venezuela which currently holds the presidency of the Common Market, but that no one is following anymore. Another alliance currently chaired by Venezuela, the much less known NAM (Non-Aligned Movement), is […]

Insurance sector: Questioning of the economic model

Everyone remembers the images picturing floods, hail storms, mudslides, tornadoes and other disasters that have swept Europe, Germany, France, and Belgium recently, but also those of other continents (America, Australia, and Canada, where huge fires are still raging in Alberta). The estimated damage is reported to be in billions of Euros: 1.4 billion estimated in […]

USA 2017 – Independence is the right path for Puerto Rico

As part of our series of articles on the United States, knowing the elections are almost here, and deep socio-political changes are most probably on the way in this country, we will dedicate some time to study what the crisis in Puerto Rico says about the solidarity of the US union system. We will show […]

European construction industry: Frustrating dreams of grandeur and retreat

Who will benefit from the striking perspectives offered by the construction market in emerging countries? If we had to trust the forecasts, the period 2020-2030 will be the new golden age of the construction and civil engineering companies… (read more in the GEAB 104) Western real estate: a market of contrasts We have already pointed […]

City of London, 2020: A small financial platform on the outskirts of the European continent

The city of London used to be an exceptional financial centre, by far the foremost in the world, a position it had owned for generations. Nevertheless, being attacked from all sides, it attempted with great effort to defend itself and demonstrated imagination and extensive accessibility but yet, eight years after the beginning of the global […]

Central Banks – What the coexistence of QE and deflation reveals about the Western financial system

Common sense (or rather economic sense) would expect that excessive use of the printing press, especially in the US and Japan, causes inflation – if not hyperinflation given the amount of money injected into the system. And yet, it’s nothing of the kind. Are deflation and the printing press conniving in the US ? Or […]

Investments, trends and recommendations 

– Retirees: avoid the worst – How to protect yourself? – Gold: the instruction book In the GEAB n° 86 last June, we painted a bleak picture of the US pension system, one of the US’ time bombs. Before giving “survival” recommendations on this subject here, we would like to begin with a reminder of […]

2017, International Monetary System: returning to a fixed exchange rate regime

The petrodollar system has been in agony for several years now. We wrote in our GEAB No. 100 that our team’s belief was that we were about to live through the final collapse of this system in 2016. Since it is the pillar of the current international monetary order, its fall will allow (even force) […]

2016 Anticipations: 12 Up and 22 Down – 34 key trends

LEAP/E2020 is offering you, like each year, a summary overview of the key trends in 2016. Besides the intellectual significance of LEAP/E2020’s contribution, which of course reflects many of the analyses of our researchers during the past months, it aims at enabling a better perception of news priorities, while at the same time providing recommendations… […]

The evaluation of our anticipations for 2015 (from the GEAB No. 91 of January 2015): 73% success

After a hollow year 2014, particularly because of the disruption caused by the Ukrainian crisis, our team returns to its usual scores, close to 75% of successful anticipations. . Investments, trends and recommendations -Oil, shale, inventories: still not for tomorrow : Our team did not find many articles in the international media showing surprise about how […]

Political Anticipation and Networks – Creating Anticipatory Systems for Government and Society

LEAP, whose method of political anticipation was invented by Franck Biancheri, and applied every month in the GEAB, is honoured to have been invited to contribute a 20-page chapter in an international scientific publication on Cognitive Systems entitled « Anticipation across Disciplines », edited by world famous anticipation expert, Prof Mihai Nadin (Springer, 2015)… . Investments, trends […]

US Business Schools: a case study in America’s failing Education System

US business schools, once considered as being the best management training institutes, are today witnessing a decline in trust and market value of their degrees. The failing state of the US business school model is due to many factors ingrained into its management, curricula and non-performance of the primary duties of educational institutions…(read more in […]

Greece, a battle « won », but not the war

A lot has happened in Greece since the last GEAB issue. A dramatic turn of events at the end of June with the referendum on austerity organized by Tsipras at the end of June, Varoufakis’ resignation at the beginning of July despite the large “no” victory which he defended, negotiation of an emergency solution, and […]

Greek crisis : the temptation to close the door on the IMF

To believe our media, it would seem that the whole world is hanging onto the Greek agreement sought by the EU, the ECB and the IMF. Between sudden developments and stalemate the tension is rising and from now on a Greek payment default isn’t excluded. Cataclysm or opportunity? Investments, trends and recommendations . Sovereign bonds: […]