Home Les bulletins GEAB GEAB 137 Hong Kong 2025: A suburb of Shenzhen

GEAB 137

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 16 Sep 2019

Hong Kong 2025: A suburb of Shenzhen

Between a USD-pegged currency (the HKD) and the reaffirmation of its Chinese nature after its handover in 1997, Hong Kong lies right at the heart of the famous trade war between the United States and China. This context largely explains the island’s economic difficulties, creating the conditions for the well-known troubles.

A longer-term perspective also highlights the structural problem posed to Hong Kong by the highly competitive environment that has been built in the region. Back in March, before the riots exploded on the peninsula, we wrote this recommendation within the GEAB: “Hong Kong: The harbour is under water. It’s never good to be number one, because when you stop being number one, not only have you been overtaken, but you also shrink in importance. Hong Kong’s Asian business hub is struggling with its demotion behind the new Asian hubs, mainly Shanghai. To keep up with the new juggernauts, Hong Kong would need to invest huge sums of money, to modernise its harbour for example, but investments are heading mostly to Shanghai rather than to Hong Kong… So be cautious when it comes to assets related to this city.” [1]

Comments

To leave a comment sign up now
In summary

In line with our anticipations in 2006 regarding the fall of the second half of the bipolar system centred around Russia and the United States, the recent dismissal of Trump's [...]

In developed nations, there is a clear trend to living longer and having fewer children. Certain countries have countered this trend through (planned or unplanned) immigration, but this approach also [...]

It's not only Hong Kong that finds itself in the middle of the crossfire of the US-China trade war. The IMF may also be on the list of collateral victims [...]

Finance – First openings in the Chinese market Our investment recommendations on the Chinese financial market are not easy to follow due to lack of accessibility. However, gradually the Chinese [...]

Related articles
Geta Grama-Moldovan
15 Sep 2019

Investments, trends and recommendations (Sept 2019)

#cryptos #finance #investment #oil

Finance – First openings in the Chinese market Our investment recommendations on the Chinese financial market are not easy to follow due to lack of accessibility. However, gradually the Chinese [...]

Geta Grama-Moldovan
15 Sep 2019

2020: IMF, a collateral victim of the US-China trade war

#currencies #euro #europe #finance #governance

It's not only Hong Kong that finds itself in the middle of the crossfire of the US-China trade war. The IMF may also be on the list of collateral victims [...]

Geta Moldovan
15 Jun 2019

2010-2030: The disappearance of the European banking system as we knew it

#bank #cryptos #europe #finance #international monetary system

Reports are currently proliferating concerning the health of the European banking sector ten years after its great crisis. However, on the one hand, the European banks only managed to get [...]