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The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Jun 2024

India: Modi in transition mode

“India’s shock election result” is the headline in Chatham House[1], “electoral surprise” for the American media… But our readers were certainly not so surprised by the election results in India, since we warned as early as 2023 that Modi would have difficulty securing his majority. The elections are part of the famous 2024 global electoral calendar, and Modi will also come out groggy (as he will be for the EU, the UK and surely the USA).

Figure 1: Number of seats per coalition 2024/2019 – Source: Reuters

With his National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition, he has justly secured a majority in the lower house of the Indian Parliament, the Lok Sabha, of 293 seats (majority threshold 272 seats), whereas in 2019, the BJP alone had won 303 seats (353 for the coalition)[2]. It has to be said that this year’s elections in India, the most important in the world, were a real obstacle course: the leader, Rahul Ghandi, was sentenced to two years’ imprisonment for defamation, while Arvind Kejriwal,

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