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GEAB 139

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Nov 2019

Investments, trends and recommendations (Nov 2019)

Aramco’s IPO: another game-changer

Saudi Aramco is a wonderful illustration of the problem that we see beginning to be solved in 2020 with the establishment of a new monetary and financial system – the old one being no longer in line with the global economy of the 21st century. Since 2018, we have regularly heard talk of Aramco’s initial public offering, but the piece is apparently too big for our small Western-centric and somehow provincial financial system to swallow. Hopes are being raised again these days because Aramco plans to invest “only” 2% of its value on the markets instead of the 5% initially planned – more than half of the 100 billion in international borrowing initially requested, i.e. “only” 40 billion of the 2,000 billion at which Saudi Arabia has valued its oil industry giant. Despite this curtailing of the IPO, markets continue to tremble with fear of the consequences. If we look more closely, it is on the West side that all the problems are located: ecological agendas that make Aramco fear funding failure, risks of exposure to legal procedures of the kind that Shell, ENI, Total, etc. have faced in the past, etc.

If we combine all this, plus our shocking anticipation (at the time shocking, now pretty banal) from 3 years ago that Saudi Arabia was going to approach the yuan zone, we are extremely tempted to make the following anticipation: Aramco is about to go public on the Asian markets! And that would be the final earthquake for the petrodollar-centred global system of the last 50 years.

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In summary

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