The price of the 2nd most traded commodity (oil being number one) is soaring. At a time of recovery and infrastructure plans, and illustrating the “back to basics” trend, iron ore is the object of all sorts of lusts. While some incumbent interests prefer to optimise their margins by letting prices rise, others are working to open up the market by developing new mining sites. Everything seems to revolve around West Africa, and more specifically Guinea, which has the world’s largest unexploited deposit: Simandou.
By 2026, things should have changed, a prospect which, as it becomes clearer, will cause increasing price volatility before it stabilises.
Fig. 1 – Iron ore prices – June 2018-May 2021. Source: MarketIndex, 2021
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