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GEAB 143

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Mar 2020

Middle East 2020: Towards a New Political Deal

Wars have undoubtedly generated plagues. But do plagues generate wars?

From a systemic point of view, the pandemic should be enough to seal the fate of the old system, inaugurate the next one and save us from going down the “war” route… that is if, indeed, this route has really been avoided.

Let us remember that, since 2011, the same war has been playing out on the Middle East stage. Born of a Revolution (the Arab Spring), confiscated by the big interests, which have either blocked or exploited the situation to their advantage, the “War of Emancipation of the Middle East” has already killed half a million people on the Syrian front,[1] 100,000 at least in Yemen,[2] and 15,000 in Libya.[3] Called “civil wars”, these conflicts are all interrelated and the expression of a larger, multipolar conflict involving major international powers (the United States, Russia and the EU, with China, India, Pakistan, etc. in the background), peri-regional powers (Turkey, Iran and Israel in particular – which are not Arab nations) and regional ones (Saudi Arabia, UAE). This conflict should lead to the emergence of sovereign nations (Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine… liberated from the tutelages of the 20th century) that will then need to be brought into line with each other.

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In summary

Reduced mobility, the tourism crisis, the green economy, dematerialisation of the economy, Euroland, digitalisation of central bank currencies, a radical reform of the international financial system, disruption of the European [...]

2019 was a bumper year for US stocks and, while much of Europe and the Far East faced tougher growth conditions brought on by more local concerns (Brexit, Hong-Kong etc.), [...]

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