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The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Sep 2024

Ukraine 2025: The Peace Deal that changes the world

Copyright @byjeeem

The year 2025 could mark a turning point with the signing of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. This event, driven by the BRICS+ and new international alliances, could rebalance global dynamics and offer a way out of the crisis for the economically exhausted European Union.

One political element will open a way out of the global systemic crisis the EU is struggling with: a peace deal in Ukraine in 2025.

Our team anticipates that the time has come. The signs are multiplying. The ill-considered risks taken by the Ukrainian army with its incursion into Russia, the government reshuffle and the country’s financial difficulties in repaying its foreign creditors are indicative of running out of steam. On the side of its allies, European financial support is running out, whereas the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the US presidential election is causing Uncle Sam to stammer. This war cannot go on and everyone is learning to live with this reality. Our team believes that the conditions are ripe for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine by early 2025 (or even earlier), an agreement pushed by the other members of the BRICS, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom cannot be the only players at the heart of these negotiations.

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Contents

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