By 2030, the balance of power in space will have shifted. China is catching up with the USA at an alarming rate, making orbit and the Moon the new strategic battlefields. In the face of this Star Wars, Europe and the other emerging powers risk being relegated to the background.
The clash of the Chinese and American space powers[1] will be felt on every scale. The space age dominated by international collaboration will be over by 2030, with the ISS no longer in orbit. This will give way to a multipolarisation based on a China-US duo of equal weight, definitively relegating Europe, Russia, India (for the time being), Japan and any other emerging space powers to the background.
The logic of Chinese space expansion is aggressive but has had to adapt to the new politics of sovereignty. China has turned space into a new economic battleground, where it is making an even more dramatic entrance than SpaceX, so that it is only a matter of time before certain Chinese companies will carry the same weight as American ones, accentuating the plate tectonics in this ecosystem.
Towards Chinese leadership in space exploration Login
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