Home Les bulletins GEAB GEAB 134 A theoretical exercise – NATO: What happens if Israel attacks Turkey?

GEAB 134

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Apr 2019

A theoretical exercise – NATO: What happens if Israel attacks Turkey?

NATO is a 70-year-old baby boomer… just like the Organisation of American States (69), Mao Tse Tong’s Communist Republic of China, the Federal Republic of Germany, the Democratic Republic of Germany, the Treaty of Rome (72 years), the State of Israel (71 years), the Geneva Convention, George Orwell’s 1984 novel[1], Antonio Guterres, Bernard Arnault, Donald Trump (72 years) and Benyamin Netanyahu.

Gravity and anachronism

It’s not just men and women who were born en masse after the Second World War. National and international organisations were, too. Among the structures born in the 1940s were those created to ensure world peace (UN, Geneva Convention, European Community…) and those whose mission was to fight against communism (NATO, OAS). The anachronistic nature of the latter now poses a direct threat to the mission of the former. No wonder that NATO’s birthday celebrations went off without much enthusiasm. As proof, here are some titles from the press: NATO celebrates 70th birthday, ponders uncertain future, NATO celebrates its 70th anniversary despite rifts between some members, NATO’s Muted 70th Birthday Overshadowed by Skeptic-in-Chief, 70 years of NATO – and this year might be its most crucial , 5 Dark Clouds Hanging Over NATO’s 70th AnniversaryNATO at 70: Not a happy anniversary, etc. [2]

NATO’s Budget Crisis

Since the 2014 Newport Summit, NATO has been proud to have obtained from member states a reaffirmation of the famous principle of 2% of GDP allocated to military spending.[3] But the reality is darker. 

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