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GEAB 119

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Nov 2017

United States: The temptation of a “Military QE”

End 2017/early 2018, all major Western Central Banks will be putting a final stop to the 2008 crisis-related unconventional monetary policies, namely the famous quantitative easing policies (QEs) which enabled to provide liquidity to those banks which saw their mutual confidence for borrowing collapse in the aftermath of the subprime crisis.

Fiscal QE in rich countries

The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are all approaching a slowdown in bond buyback. In Europe, Draghi has repeated it over and over again[1]: the Central Bank cannot do everything and therefore structural reforms of the euro are urgently needed. This is the context is which the term of “fiscal QE”[2] was coined, aimed at allowing the financing of infrastructure via a strengthening of fiscal policies at European level, something which would serve the real economy and would logically consolidate the Juncker investment plan[3].

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In summary

The end of the year will be rich in surprises and escalation risks, as we have been saying for the last two months. Currently, all eyes are on the Middle [...]

China's decision to introduce in 2018 the gold-convertible petro-gazo-Yuan currency is an important step in the process of internationalisation of the Yuan. It confirms the will of Beijing (asserted for [...]

- Iran ... Germany, France and Norway have signed a series of contracts with Iran. They are not the only ones in Europe, despite the warnings and the risks which [...]

Strategic recommendation: remain covered Even though this GEAB bulletin is optimistic and sees the end of the transition tunnel focused on peace in the Middle East, we shall keep our [...]

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