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GEAB 125

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 May 2018

Euro-Russian relations: Relaxation in sight

The revival of European dynamics, whatever they might be, depends largely on the restoration of relations with Russia. This has divided the European Union since 2014 and demonstrated how much this edifice, in its initial form, is no longer capable to serve the most obvious interests of our continent, starting with maintaining good relations with our neighbours. We are very certain on this point: Europe, whether we are talking about the EU or the eurozone, will not come out of its political crisis until normal relations are restored with Russia.

Among the reasons that argue in favour of an upcoming release, here is a series edited from a March report that could not be included in the GEAB of that month due to lack of space.

  • Firstly, any renewed violence in Syria threatens Europe with a new migratory wave that Europe would not be able to resist, politically. Since Russia is indispensable to the restoration of order in Syria, Europe certainly has no interest in weakening Russia’s position there. Thus, Macron asks Putin and Rouhani to intercede with Bashar for a cease-fire[1]. In doing so, Macron asserts that the best actors of the crisis resolution are Russia and Iran, thereby reinforcing their position.
  • Apart from avoiding a new migration crisis, Europe expects to benefit from Syria’s reconstruction contracts; a reconstruction which has already started[2], but which Western companies cannot take advantage of, since their camp does not want to recognise the Russo-Syrian victory. There is no question, then, of getting into more trouble with Russia, which will have a lot to say about the distribution of contracts.

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In summary

Following the removal of the last of the bolts imposed by the previous world order, and in line with our anticipations, vast amounts of until now restrained transforming energy are [...]

The Middle East looks as if it could flare up at any moment. Iran and Israel are now face-to-face for the first time. The Turkish regime is hardening and now [...]

The Middle Eastern mega-city project called NEOM that we have told you about in a previous issue is a real reason to hope. As mentioned last time, the Saudis would [...]

Apprehension goes hand-in-hand with financial matters. Last April, the alarmist IMF announcements predicted a huge crisis by 2020 linked to the level of global debt that ten years of ‘crisis [...]

Cryptocurrencies lie at the centre of many of the questions being asked by individuals, companies and market authorities, and therefore by nation states. Their position within the economic environment is [...]

The future is filled with the factual data on which we base the anticipations that inform our decisions. That's why, on a quarterly basis, our team shares with the GEAB [...]

- Oil – don’t count on it! - The dollar – deals to make? - Gold – not like the rest - Loans – urge you on! - Savings – [...]

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