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GEAB 125

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 May 2018

Euro-Russian relations: Relaxation in sight

The revival of European dynamics, whatever they might be, depends largely on the restoration of relations with Russia. This has divided the European Union since 2014 and demonstrated how much this edifice, in its initial form, is no longer capable to serve the most obvious interests of our continent, starting with maintaining good relations with our neighbours. We are very certain on this point: Europe, whether we are talking about the EU or the eurozone, will not come out of its political crisis until normal relations are restored with Russia.

Among the reasons that argue in favour of an upcoming release, here is a series edited from a March report that could not be included in the GEAB of that month due to lack of space.

  • Firstly, any renewed violence in Syria threatens Europe with a new migratory wave that Europe would not be able to resist, politically. Since Russia is indispensable to the restoration of order in Syria, Europe certainly has no interest in weakening Russia’s position there. Thus, Macron asks Putin and Rouhani to intercede with Bashar for a cease-fire[1]. In doing so, Macron asserts that the best actors of the crisis resolution are Russia and Iran, thereby reinforcing their position.
  • Apart from avoiding a new migration crisis, Europe expects to benefit from Syria’s reconstruction contracts; a reconstruction which has already started[2], but which Western companies cannot take advantage of, since their camp does not want to recognise the Russo-Syrian victory. There is no question, then, of getting into more trouble with Russia, which will have a lot to say about the distribution of contracts.

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In summary

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