Home Investments, trends and recommendations (May 2018)

GEAB 125

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 May 2018

Investments, trends and recommendations (May 2018)

– Oil – don’t count on it!
– The dollar – deals to make?
– Gold – not like the rest
– Loans – urge you on!
– Savings – keep them safe!
– Business initiatives – an expiry date!
– Automobile sector – a model for the future

Oil – don’t count on it!

We maintain our anticipation of a forthcoming price decrease (20th May, the date of the Venezuelan elections, is certainly a reference point). This decline may be disrupted by eruptions of violence in the Middle East as long as the current situation remains uncertain. That said, unless there is a widespread explosion of tensions, the markets have already incorporated the increase related to these bouts of hostility. So, it’s mainly a price decline that could take us by surprise; something which, we repeat, will not be a collapse, but a return to $50-55 a barrel by the summer. It should be remembered that the concomitant decline of the dollar has automatically, but falsely, raised the price of oil.

One last important note: if we are wrong and the tensions worsen in the Middle East, the summer could see the situation degenerate. For this reason, we will reassess the situation of the oil prices again next month.


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