Home Les bulletins GEAB GEAB 125 Investments, trends and recommendations (May 2018)

GEAB 125

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 May 2018

Investments, trends and recommendations (May 2018)

– Oil – don’t count on it!
– The dollar – deals to make?
– Gold – not like the rest
– Loans – urge you on!
– Savings – keep them safe!
– Business initiatives – an expiry date!
– Automobile sector – a model for the future

Oil – don’t count on it!

We maintain our anticipation of a forthcoming price decrease (20th May, the date of the Venezuelan elections, is certainly a reference point). This decline may be disrupted by eruptions of violence in the Middle East as long as the current situation remains uncertain. That said, unless there is a widespread explosion of tensions, the markets have already incorporated the increase related to these bouts of hostility. So, it’s mainly a price decline that could take us by surprise; something which, we repeat, will not be a collapse, but a return to $50-55 a barrel by the summer. It should be remembered that the concomitant decline of the dollar has automatically, but falsely, raised the price of oil.

One last important note: if we are wrong and the tensions worsen in the Middle East, the summer could see the situation degenerate. For this reason, we will reassess the situation of the oil prices again next month.


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In summary

Following the removal of the last of the bolts imposed by the previous world order, and in line with our anticipations, vast amounts of until now restrained transforming energy are [...]

The Middle East looks as if it could flare up at any moment. Iran and Israel are now face-to-face for the first time. The Turkish regime is hardening and now [...]

The Middle Eastern mega-city project called NEOM that we have told you about in a previous issue is a real reason to hope. As mentioned last time, the Saudis would [...]

Apprehension goes hand-in-hand with financial matters. Last April, the alarmist IMF announcements predicted a huge crisis by 2020 linked to the level of global debt that ten years of ‘crisis [...]

The revival of European dynamics, whatever they might be, depends largely on the restoration of relations with Russia. This has divided the European Union since 2014 and demonstrated how much [...]

Cryptocurrencies lie at the centre of many of the questions being asked by individuals, companies and market authorities, and therefore by nation states. Their position within the economic environment is [...]

The future is filled with the factual data on which we base the anticipations that inform our decisions. That's why, on a quarterly basis, our team shares with the GEAB [...]

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