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GEAB 125

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 May 2018

Calendar of future events (May 2018)

The future is filled with the factual data on which we base the anticipations that inform our decisions. That’s why, on a quarterly basis, our team shares with the GEAB readers the ‘raw’ data of this work in the form of an annotated calendar of upcoming events for the next three or four months. It is a calendar which everyone can adapt to their own concerns – a simple, original and illuminating tool.

17th May: EU-Balkans Summit in Sofia (Bulgaria) 

We have often said that the EU’s enlargement to the Balkans is a geopolitical time bomb, considering the current state of EU-Russia and EU-Turkey relations. But, interestingly enough, the words ‘integration’ or ‘enlargement’ do not appear on the institutional description of the EU-Balkans Summit[1]. Instead, words like ‘cooperation’, ‘partnership’ and ‘rapprochement’ are mentioned. Furthermore, the Kosovo issue, which actually divides the EU (Greece, Romania, Spain, Cyprus and Slovakia do not recognise the state of Kosovo yet), has been bypassed by giving Kosovo a neutral status in the meeting. Finally, the summit has been organised on the initiative of Bulgaria, the country currently holding the EU Presidency and one with notorious Russian sympathies. The time seems ripe, then, for this summit to make a significant contribution in terms of initiating a constructive and non-ideological dynamic of privileged partnership between the EU and the Balkans.  A highly relevant initiative, seen from this angle! Let’s dream a little and imagine that Russia is invited as an observer at the last minute and that the EU-Balkans Summit will also serve to revive EU-Russia relations, as we hoped a few months ago…

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In summary

Following the removal of the last of the bolts imposed by the previous world order, and in line with our anticipations, vast amounts of until now restrained transforming energy are [...]

The Middle East looks as if it could flare up at any moment. Iran and Israel are now face-to-face for the first time. The Turkish regime is hardening and now [...]

The Middle Eastern mega-city project called NEOM that we have told you about in a previous issue is a real reason to hope. As mentioned last time, the Saudis would [...]

Apprehension goes hand-in-hand with financial matters. Last April, the alarmist IMF announcements predicted a huge crisis by 2020 linked to the level of global debt that ten years of ‘crisis [...]

The revival of European dynamics, whatever they might be, depends largely on the restoration of relations with Russia. This has divided the European Union since 2014 and demonstrated how much [...]

Cryptocurrencies lie at the centre of many of the questions being asked by individuals, companies and market authorities, and therefore by nation states. Their position within the economic environment is [...]

- Oil – don’t count on it! - The dollar – deals to make? - Gold – not like the rest - Loans – urge you on! - Savings – [...]

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