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GEAB 178

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Oct 2023

Geopolitics: The logic of force returns

Logically, the international governance invented by the West after two world wars to create the conditions for peace was based on the defence of weak players (Palestinians, Armenians, Saharawis, etc.) against strong players (Israel, Azerbaijan, Morocco, etc.). It is morally undeniable that a peace system is designed to curb the expansionist ambitions of those who have the means to fulfil their ideals.  But every system has its limits.

By denying the victories of the strong without giving the weak what they want, this principle has had the disadvantage of perpetuating situations of conflict that have blocked the future prospects of entire regions. These regions are now determined to see history take its course again.

The emergence of new geopolitical players around the world is creating the conditions for new avenues of resolution. Unfortunately, these will probably go through a stage of endorsing the demands of the strong (the logic of war) before securing the situation of the weak (the creation of a new framework for global governance).

And that’s where we are, as current events show. This month we look at the latest.

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