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GEAB 122

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Feb 2018

Mr Catastrophe – Our team presents a series of brief alerts

In this short column, we are discussing, in the form of brief alerts, several risks that our bulletin cannot develop further, but concerning which we want, nevertheless, to warn our readers.

Syria once again 

The American camp seemed to be failing for some time, leaving the way open to the Russian camp to calm the situation. But now it is reorganised, surrounded by countries whose interests it was already representing. All the great proxy-players of the Syrian war are now revealed: on one side, the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kurdistan; and on the other: Russia, Iran, Turkey, Palestine. Under the cover of a common war against the ISIS, these enemies are now gathering on the same ground, especially around the oil wells (ISIS, legitimate Syrian forces, Americans, Russians…). Israel will not abandon the camp either; it will never accept a regime favourable to Iran completing the Shiite Iran-Mediterranean Sea corridor on their northern border. Not to mention that an open war will allow Israel to fulfil its dream of getting rid of the Palestinian populations in the West Bank – wars are perfect opportunities to trigger population displacements as everyone knows.

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In summary

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