Home Investments, trends and recommendations (Feb 2018)

GEAB 122

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Feb 2018

Investments, trends and recommendations (Feb 2018)

– Oil: Bottom down

– Businesses: beware of bankruptcies galore

– Businesses: beware of bankruptcies galore

– Bitcoin and cryptocurrency: everything is under control

– Precious metals, safe assets

Oil: Bottom down 

The US announcements of oil production effect (we moved overnight from the ‘explosion of production’ to ‘less than expected production’[1]) have resulted in a yo-yo price, which is fluctuating now around $60 a barrel. This is a policy which probably reflects the tension between divergent US interests: on the one hand, those who need a high price to speculate or invest in their drilling (including shale oil/gas producers who rush into the investments brought by Donald Trump’s tax measures) and those who prefer a weak rate to be able to feed a theoretically booming economy, but without financial means. For speculators, quick profit-taking is at your fingertips, but watch out for market volatility. For the moment, OPEC+ continues to tighten the screw when it comes to production[2], but its actors could get tired of this game and end up freeing the quotas or even leading to Russia’s exit, and thus to a price collapse. If our “Warnings” on Syria and/or the Red Sea fronts materialise, one might expect the prices to flare up, but our readers know our basic analysis: oil is no longer king and any price spike will move the market towards other producers (Russia, USA…), other energies (gas), even renewable energies. A slippage in the Middle East would shatter OPEC+ which is currently pulling prices up, and therefore prices might eventually collapse.

Comments

To leave a comment sign up now
Contents

At the beginning of February, the US stock markets, followed by the financial markets of the rest of the world, experienced a violent correction. In two days, the Dow Jones [...]

Brexit seemed to have opened up the long-awaited project of redefining the functioning and objectives of the European machine. But today Brussels prefers to boast about the UK's difficulties, and, thinking [...]

The future is full of factual data on which must be based anticipations that shed light on our decisions. That's why, once a quarter, our team shares with GEAB readers [...]

In this short column, we are discussing, in the form of brief alerts, several risks that our bulletin cannot develop further, but concerning which we want, nevertheless, to warn our [...]

Related articles
GEAB
15 Jun 2022

Investments, trends and recommendations (Jun)

#bitcoin #Crypto #gold #investment #oil #yen

Gold, Bitcoin: Focus on traditional investments // Yen, the first pawn to fall? // End of combustion engines in 2035 // Oil: The rise continues Gold, Bitcoin: Focus on traditional [...]

GEAB
15 Apr 2022

Investments, trends and recommendations (Apr 2022)

#bitcoin #cryptos #gold #investments #oil #real estate

Bitcoin & co continues to grow // Gold: Big uncertainties are favouring historical solutions // Property prices: Amsterdam, Paris, Stockholm, Zurich, Munich, Frankfurt at the end of the line // [...]

GEAB
15 Mar 2022

Investments, trends and recommendations (mar 2022)

#art #commodities #cryptos #dollar #energy #investments #real estate

Commodities - Questioning our certainties //  Energy - Market fragmentation //  Cryptocurrencies – Counterintuition //  Dollar – Transmutation //  Real Estate – Attention //  Art - "Beauty will save the [...]