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GEAB 182

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Feb 2024

Investments, trends and recommendations (Febr)

Oil: Break the prices and we’ll break you

Expensive oil will be the norm in 2024. The GEAB has always believed that the arrival of the United States as the world’s leading oil producer would be short-lived due to a lack of sustainable reserves. The fracking sector is in crisis and private operators are buying each other out to survive[1]. Their investors are counting on qualitative returns rather than quantities produced. High crude oil prices are therefore enough for them. Their interests are combined with those of government bodies, which want expensive oil to slow down the competition that the Global South – and China in particular – is inflicting on them. So it is that, after having depressed prices, the United States is now pushing them up, forcing OPEC to reduce its production quotas, creating scarcity by freezing the very largest producers (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), banning the use of sanctioned oil, threatening retaliation against anyone who tries to lower prices, etc. Like the frog plunged into boiling water, the world in 2024 may believe it is becoming accustomed to expensive energy…

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Contents

The current surge in grandiose projects for cities conceived ex nihilo as pure utopias is a sign of the times... ... a characteristic signal of multiple and simultaneous ruptures: the [...]

As we diligently observe the geopolitical shifts in our world each month, the analysis of futuristic city projects and new urban developments proves to be exceptionally revealing. Like dreams, these [...]

We find ourselves precisely where we depicted the painful and violent transition to the world after, with what we referred to as the return of the logic of force in [...]

Hit by the Western mega-crisis, with all escape routes blocked, Germany must reinvent urgently its economic model to stop its decline. After the Allied victory over Hitler, the US and [...]

Egypt lies at the crossroads of trade routes, providing a link between two major regions: North Africa and the Arab countries. This strategic geographical position puts Egypt, in North Africa, [...]

This month, our reader’s look on the future digs into technology and medicine through the AI and digital tools, only to get back to our most basic needs: health and [...]

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