GEAB 182
Oil: Break the prices and we’ll break you
Expensive oil will be the norm in 2024. The GEAB has always believed that the arrival of the United States as the world’s leading oil producer would be short-lived due to a lack of sustainable reserves. The fracking sector is in crisis and private operators are buying each other out to survive[1]. Their investors are counting on qualitative returns rather than quantities produced. High crude oil prices are therefore enough for them. Their interests are combined with those of government bodies, which want expensive oil to slow down the competition that the Global South – and China in particular – is inflicting on them. So it is that, after having depressed prices, the United States is now pushing them up, forcing OPEC to reduce its production quotas, creating scarcity by freezing the very largest producers (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), banning the use of sanctioned oil, threatening retaliation against anyone who tries to lower prices, etc. Like the frog plunged into boiling water, the world in 2024 may believe it is becoming accustomed to expensive energy…
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