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GEAB 181

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Jan 2024

Thirty-one Key Trends for 2024

Geopolitics: Asymmetrical Recomposition

1 – American election fog disrupts global visibility

The fog surrounding the American elections is disrupting global visibility. What will this lack of visibility mean for the outcome of the American election? Claiming to be the world’s leading democracy, the US political system has always been fine-tuned, and for decades, like clockwork: 2 Democratic terms, followed by 2 Republican terms, followed by 2 Democratic terms and so on… The arrival of Donald Trump as US President disrupted this perfect symmetry, firstly because of his personality and extravagant style, his tumultuous presidency (culminating in impeachment proceedings in the final weeks of his term), and finally, the fact that he was not re-elected after his first term, thus breaking the American electoral metronome. Today, the icing on the cake is that, even though he may be prevented from running by the courts in various American states, he is the favourite in the polls, even though the United States has always been known to hate losers. As much adored as hated, if we consider all the plausible scenarios, we can’t even rule out a potential assassination! (Or a sudden death – after all, he will be 78 at the time of the election). On the other hand, Biden, for other reasons that have more to do with his age (82 the day after the election – 20 November) and his supposed state of health, few people would dare to bet 100% that Joe Biden will maintain his candidacy, or that he will complete his term of office if re-elected. Not only is it impossible to predict the winner, but it is even difficult to predict with any certainty the candidates for the election (the two declared candidates are battling it out on health reports)[1].

The political stability of the United States depended, to a large extent, on a perfectly regular alternation of power. In the 21st century, an increasingly unstable world cannot afford to accept as its leader a power which offers no clear visibility, especially when its main competitor, China, offers it 100%.


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