GEAB 181
Geopolitics: Asymmetrical Recomposition
1 – American election fog disrupts global visibility
The fog surrounding the American elections is disrupting global visibility. What will this lack of visibility mean for the outcome of the American election? Claiming to be the world’s leading democracy, the US political system has always been fine-tuned, and for decades, like clockwork: 2 Democratic terms, followed by 2 Republican terms, followed by 2 Democratic terms and so on… The arrival of Donald Trump as US President disrupted this perfect symmetry, firstly because of his personality and extravagant style, his tumultuous presidency (culminating in impeachment proceedings in the final weeks of his term), and finally, the fact that he was not re-elected after his first term, thus breaking the American electoral metronome. Today, the icing on the cake is that, even though he may be prevented from running by the courts in various American states, he is the favourite in the polls, even though the United States has always been known to hate losers. As much adored as hated, if we consider all the plausible scenarios, we can’t even rule out a potential assassination! (Or a sudden death – after all, he will be 78 at the time of the election). On the other hand, Biden, for other reasons that have more to do with his age (82 the day after the election – 20 November) and his supposed state of health, few people would dare to bet 100% that Joe Biden will maintain his candidacy, or that he will complete his term of office if re-elected. Not only is it impossible to predict the winner, but it is even difficult to predict with any certainty the candidates for the election (the two declared candidates are battling it out on health reports)[1].
The political stability of the United States depended, to a large extent, on a perfectly regular alternation of power. In the 21st century, an increasingly unstable world cannot afford to accept as its leader a power which offers no clear visibility, especially when its main competitor, China, offers it 100%.
This is an obvious, but often underestimated, factor that will contribute to the rise in power of the BRICS+ and the loss of influence of the West in 2024. The choice of those who align themselves with the BRICS+ will undoubtedly appear to offer the most guarantees, opportunities, and a clear direction for the future and for effective development. The enlargement of the BRICS is set to be a success because of its ambition (neither too much nor too little), which will dazzle those countries that are hesitating or hoping for the same result from a privileged partnership with the United States and the European Union.
2 – BRICS+: A powerful first year
The 2024 series of elections should not obscure the fact that this is the inaugural year of the BRICS ‘+’. Their opposition to the Americanist unipolar system and Western-led international institutions has become more radical with each passing year. This is how we must understand the Russian invasion of Ukraine (which cannot be seen in isolation from NATO enlargement) and the legal proceedings brought by South Africa against Israel at the The Hague. With the election of Javier Milei in Argentina, the BRICS+ have lost a strategic member, particularly in the de-dollarisation agenda (although[2]). But the most important rapprochement remains with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The perfect alliance between these countries and the historic BRICS remains the development of an economy less dependent on oil revenues. They can bring their financial strength to the BRICS states and allied countries, while the historic and new members can provide the manpower and outlets to transform their economies. As a result, the BRICS+ will be an accelerator of growth and economic diversification by 2024. We expect the NDB (New BRICS Development Bank) to have a greater influence in this sector, with its funds strengthened and its capacity to increase the financing it grants from this year[3].
In geopolitical terms, we anticipate that the BRICS+ ambition is to strike a diplomatic blow as early as 2024. We believe that the BRICS+ will have a major role to play in the coming year (e.g. Ukraine, Gaza, even if this seems impossible given that neither Russia, Saudi Arabia nor the UAE are neutral players on the conflict front), and other geopolitical disturbances are bound to surface over the course of the year (see our Transnistria and Red Sea trends). The BRICS+ are particularly well placed on the world map, combining, with Brazil at their head in 2024, the economic influence of China, the strategic influence of Russia and the diplomatic influence of Ethiopia (home of the African Union – AU)[4].
3 – Taiwan: the obligation to make peace
The results of the presidential elections in Taiwan reveal a divided society and public opinion. Candidate Lai Ching-te, representing the outgoing anti-Chinese DPP, won just over 40% of the vote[5]. However, the KMT (pro-Chinese), the big winner of the last local elections, remains a party that counts[6]. China’s immediate reaction shows that the matter has not been settled and that 2024 will be full of developments. But our team remains convinced that no one has an interest in a direct confrontation in the region, and Biden’s statement that the United States does not support independence for the island is a step in that direction[7]. We therefore interpret the results as an obligation for the Chinese and Americans to work together, diplomatically, to find common ground so that each of the players involved can guarantee their interests and those of the Taiwanese people.
4 – Dangerous strategic initiatives by weak players (Transnistria)
Elsewhere in the world, we are anticipating new explosions, again as part of this trend towards renewed tensions with a view to a lasting resolution of “frozen” conflicts. Transnistria, an autonomous pro-Russian region of Moldova (or Moldovan separatist enclave, depending on the analyst), which has taken a back seat since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on Europe’s doorstep, has enormous strategic implications. Since 1January, Moldova has been imposing a new customs duty on its exports (it already taxes its imports from the EU)[8] creating new frictions. The Russians could take advantage of a balance of power to their advantage and growing instability on the Ukrainian/Western side to extend the conflict to this region. As in the case of Crimea, a Russian base with 1,500 soldiers is already there. A sequence similar to that of the war in Georgia in 2008, with clashes between Transnistrian citizens and the Moldovan army, is also a possible scenario. Strategically, a total Russian breakthrough along the Black Sea coast, including securing the position of Odessa, would be a terrible slap in the face for Ukraine and the West. Without necessarily going as far as an annexation as definitive as that of Crimea, such a sequence would be part of Russia’s strategy to force the Ukrainians to give in on a peace deal involving the partition of their country.
Figure 1 – Map of the Ukrainian front. Transnistria is the shaded area to the east of Moldova. Source: Financial Times
5 – Red Sea: A return to the logic of force
The tensions in the Red Sea are in line with this tendency of the weaker players to rekindle tensions, but also with the strong players, in this case Saudi Arabia and Iran, regaining control. These two states, now united within the BRICS+, will not let the Houthis derail the peace processes that are emerging in the region, the central issue being of course Gaza. One of the challenges of the year on the international scene is to find out which global player will be able to impose itself as an order-maker. We anticipate that in this particular case, it will be the BRICS+ who will manage to find a way of easing tensions, resolving, probably in 2024, possibly 2025, the conflict in Yemen by restoring dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia, via the mediation of China[9] and thus paving the way for a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
6 – EU: Final crisis
In the wake of 2022, war in Ukraine, energy crisis, climate crisis, deindustrialisation, etc., the Spanish Presidency of the EU ended with yet another conflict, the war in the Gaza Strip. European summits that failed to get past Hungary’s veto on further aid to Ukraine; European policies directly challenged by citizens (ecologist-sceptic victories in national elections, huge demonstrations by farmers); a European Parliament that is still awaiting its democratic ‘revolution’ – all these factors demonstrate the extent to which current systems and procedures have run out of steam. A large majority of political representatives and commentators now agree that reform is essential, all the more so in view of the prospect of enlargement to 37 countries by 2030 (Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia + the Balkans)[10]. Executing it successfully necessitates legitimacy and consensus—two elements notably lacking within both the European institutions and the Member States, spanning from their political elites to public opinion.
On the one hand, the Brussels federalists are taking advantage of the institutional crises, arguing that the prospect of a Union of 30 or more is incompatible with unanimous voting, and are therefore trying to confer greater powers on the European institutions. On the other hand, an increasingly clear majority of citizens are reluctant to see further European integration[11].
Figure 2: Enlargement and European public opinion by candidate country. Source: Euronews, 12/12/2023
7 – European elections: Rise of the far right and stiffening of the EU
The tipping point in the crisis will be the rise of nationalist parties in the European elections next June. Almost all these parties were founded on the premise that their country should leave the EU or the eurozone. They have all evolved towards a doctrine in which they no longer envisage leaving, but wish to radically change the European project. As the elections approach, they are not only leading the polls in several countries, including Germany, France and Italy, which account for a third of the seats in the EP, but they are also the most coherent political movement at European level. In 2024, this unity, which they will use to promote values that are often contrary to those that form the basis of European integration, will irreparably scare off the Brussels bubble, which will block all the locks of an EU that can no longer afford not to evolve. The best example of this is the race to prevent Viktor Orban from seizing the post of President of the European Council this summer, the “nightmare of the Brussels apparatus”. Currently occupied by Charles Michel, who will resign if he is elected MEP in June, the interim role would fall to Orban, with Hungary holding the rotating presidency of the EU for the 2nd half of 2024[12].
8 – EU: Influence at half-mast
This crisis, which will become apparent after the elections, will exacerbate a trend that is already underway: the ejection of Europeans from the international stage. It will manifest itself on several levels:
- The end of EU’s well known free trade agreements (supposed to be one of the EU’s strong points). The ratification in November of the agreement with New Zealand[13] is in fact a revealing sign. Only the “Western” partners seem to offer productive relations, and even then, the free trade agreement with Australia was a bitter failure[14]. While the regions of the world that offer significant growth prospects are turning their backs on Europe, as in the case of the EU-MERCOSUR agreement, which Argentina will sign one day or another, perhaps[15]… no progress can be anticipated in India[16], Mexico or Indonesia, which no longer need Europe!…
- The issue of Ukraine, where the EU finds itself in a quasi-belligerent position (virtually unanimous commitment in terms of armaments, military training and financial support, a desire to integrate Ukraine into the EU as a full member as quickly as possible, and an extreme anti-Putin stance that makes Russia Europe’s enemy). The Europeans are de facto out of the picture when it comes to resolving the conflict. The Normandy format that guided the Minsk agreements is history.
9 – Ukraine: 2024 peace process, without the Europeans, without the Americans, without Zelenski?
While our team does not venture to anticipate the signing of a peace agreement in 2024 itself, the conditions should gradually come together over the coming months to lead to an agreement in 2025. The Russian elections will ultimately confirm Vladimir Putin’s indomitable character, while the European elections, the American campaign and the absence of elections in Ukraine will reveal the unstable nature of the opposing camp. We are reaffirming here a forecast for the end of 2023, when the Ukrainians will realise that Western support is waning and will turn away before it dries up for good, especially as it is now and not at the end of the year that they need money and weapons. They will be looking further south for a diplomatic intermediary, in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the African Union, etc. Following the impossibility of a counter-offensive tested in 2023, there should be little change in strategic positions on the front in 2024, allowing diplomatic positions to evolve. Although it will not play a direct role in the negotiations, due to Russian opposition, the American election will be a factor in breaking the deadlock in the crisis (and it is a pity that it is taking place so late, which is why a peace negotiation cannot be envisaged until late 2024/2025 at the earliest). While it is virtually impossible to anticipate the outcome of the election, whatever the result, it is a country that is reluctant to engage in any other way on the European continent that will emerge from it, especially if it does not gain anything from it.
Figure 3: American opinion on US involvement in Ukraine. Source: Gallup
What about Zelenski? Having exhausted all diplomatic avenues in the world, and still today in Davos, can he still be the one to seek a solution? A transitional government (which various players seem to want to opt for today[17]) and probably a military one, could ensure the emergence of a diplomatic compromise that would then be rapidly ratified by an election. Even without elections, his chances of finishing 2024 as President are slim.
Politics: Internal tensions and authoritarian tendencies
10 – Argentina opt for the hard way
The election of Javier Milei offers a clear perspective for Argentina. The new President’s libertarian approach implies radical economic and administrative reforms, with a consolidation of public accounts, spending cuts and, consequently, a drastic reduction in social benefits. While this will have consequences for inequality and job insecurity, and will provoke social tensions in the country, we anticipate that this approach can bring results, particularly in the short term. As a result, it will serve as a model for Western countries with the most generous social systems. This will fuel people’s anger all the more.
11 – Peoples’ anger and authoritarian government reactions
This is perhaps the most structuring trend of 2024 for the European continent. The situation is already worrying: farmers in Germany[18], France[19], the Netherlands[20], Poland[21]; lorry drivers[22] in Slovakia, Poland, Hungary; health workers in the United Kingdom[23]… There is no shortage of social movements on the threshold of 2024 and, above all, they are tending to take on a transnational dimension[24]. The economic and social trends described throughout this article will all add fuel to the fire of people’s anger, which will only find unsatisfactory expression at the ballot box. After the first change of government in France, we anticipate further resignations (the most obvious appears to be in Germany, where Olaf Scholz’s days as Chancellor are numbered) and snap appointments, or even early elections.
12 – Far right, political radicalisation: Bad times for freedom and democracy
The rise of the far right in Europe is by no means new, but it is growing stronger every year. Whether it results in victory or defeat, it will be reflected politically either in an alliance with the parties of the historic conservative right, or in a radicalisation of national policies, including those pursued by non-extremist parties in a gesture of self-protection, as the French government is currently doing, or in Germany’s attempts to ban the AfD[25], or in the United States to ban Trump’s candidacy… Dirty times for freedom and democracy[26].
More generally, this trend is also reflected in the idea of a change in the global power model, with China replacing the United States. Our societies are now too complex and divided for political leaders not to give in to the authoritarian temptation to guarantee both national cohesion and, above all, the efficient and productive running of business.
13 – The United States in 2024
A perfect example of this trend is the United States in 2024. This will be the outcome of the election, not just the victory of one party or another. This is not a new situation[27], but it will become unbearable after the elections and, here too, will force an authoritarian turn by the administration taking over the reins of the country in 2025.
14 – France: A definitive rift between citizens and the political elite; a boulevard for the far right to come to power in 2024?
In France, this trend can be seen above all in the disconnect between the political elite and the public. The career path of the new Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, is glaring proof of this (he has never moved outside the most affluent areas of the capital from his school days to his political career). His appointment is due to his relative popularity, which in turn is due to his young age (34). But another young political representative is on the threshold of power, Jordan Bardella (28), president of Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, Rassemblement National. His party, which is the leading opposition force in the National Assembly and took twenty-one of France’s seventy-nine seats in the European Parliament in 2019, is set to make a further leap forward in the European elections in June, revealing the lack of legitimacy of the current government[28]. The risk of early elections bringing Jordan Bardella to the head of government in the second half of the year cannot be ruled out[29].
15 – Germany: Scholz is stepping down
The year 2024 began in Germany with farmers blocking traffic and the Brandenburger Tor with their tractors, train drivers on strike, large parts of the country once again under water and a Chancellor, Scholz, who failed to seize the ‘Schröder moment’ of wading through the water in his boots with his fellow citizens affected by the disaster. Add to this the destruction of North Stream, the endless deliveries of money and weapons to Ukraine, the coalition government’s green agenda, and yet the end of aid for electric vehicles, the debt brake that is plunging the government into an unprecedented budget crisis, the plan to tax farmers,… and you have a picture of confidence at its worst…. the confidence rating at a record low[30], the media denouncing Scholz’s responsibility for the Wirecard affair while boosting the popularity of Boris Pistorius, the current Defence Minister (after a series of highly unpopular female ministers, including Ursula von der Leyen). The stage is thus set for the departure of Scholz, who is still hesitating, in favour of a man of action, Pistorius [31].
16 – Vatican: A leader without a church
The unipolar model of governance no longer works, as the world asserts its multipolarity. One institution, the Vatican, which is in fact the very model of unipolarity, is no exception to this trend, and by 2024 it will lose all its significant dimension. With the rise of an attractive, modern Islam[32], the creation of new gods (AI), the greater visibility of multipolar Orthodox Christian churches, increasingly autonomous national Catholic churches[33], and a “Holy Land” at war… we anticipate that the next Pope will return to the (simple) role of Bishop of Rome.
17 – Change of course for the UK, back to the EU
It sounds bold, but it’s perfectly realistic. The divorce between the United Kingdom and the European Union may be complete in appearance, but in reality the UK’s economic and commercial strategies have not strayed far from European dynamic. At the end of the year, however, the Labour Party is expected to win the elections[34]. With Jeremy Corbin out of the way, the anti-European forces on the British left will be few and far between (and on the right David Cameron will have signed his end with his last portfolio as British Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs). This has led to figures as influential as the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, clearly denouncing Brexit[35]. As a result, two scenarios are on the table: if the country’s economic situation worsens severely and the Irish[36] and Scots[37] manage to push hard enough, a new vote resulting in the UK’s formal return to the EU is possible; simpler still and therefore all the more likely, a pure and simple alignment of the UK’s national political choices with European decisions to guarantee fluid access to the single market, in other words the soft Brexit avoided at all costs by the Tories…
Economy: Reality prevails over theory
18 – Public debt crisis
Economic trends continue to defy all economic and monetary theories. Normally, in times of inflation and weak growth, governments slow down their borrowing or even reduce their debt (as the cost of borrowing increases and money loses value, this mechanism should fall into place naturally). However, this is not what we are seeing. The United States[38], like the European governments, has continued to borrow massively and the cost of debt (interest payments) is becoming increasingly burdensome[39]. In 2024 this situation will worsen, as we have shown. Our team believes that interest rates will remain high (see the recommendations), but without bursting the bubble definitively. Although we cannot clearly see that we are tipping over into a debt crisis, several breaking points will highlight the crisis to come:
- The slide into recession of several Western economies, which will make the structure of public finances much more unsustainable as we approach 2025.
- The expiry of state-guaranteed loans, which will fuel SME bankruptcies (see next points) and reduce public revenues.
- The potential denunciation of public accounts in the event of a change of government as a result of the elections. This risk is particularly acute in the United States, where in the event of a Republican victory, a Democrat would be the obvious culprit.
19 – After Birmingham, Paris?
In September 2023, the UK’s second largest city council, Birmingham, declared itself bankrupt[40]. This situation is described by the city’s public players as the “hangover” from the “big party” that was the Commonwealth Games organised in 2022. It’s hard not to draw parallels with Paris, which is hosting the 2024 Olympics. The city is already in a massive debt (with a 200% increase during the current office term[41]). A hangover is to be expected in the second half of the year in Paris, in terms of public finances and the economy in general. Real estate prices are constantly falling[42] and the city’s reputation as a tourist destination has lost some of its lustre[43]. An economic/debt crisis is therefore a serious possibility for the second half of 2024 or early 2025.
20 – Corporate bankruptcies: High risk of domino effect
Just as the French Minister of the Economy and Finance has just agreed to spread repayments over three years (until 2026) on state-guaranteed loans granted during the COVID period, in order to “save certain companies”[44], a number of deadlines will soon be falling in the European and American economies. In many cases, these deadlines reveal the poor health of certain large groups (according to the Allianz index, companies with sales of more than €50 million), leading to a chain of bankruptcies. While the spotlight in the German economy is on the bankruptcy of the Austrian Signa group and its entire business model, based in Germany, which it is dragging down with it (domino effect)[45], in 2023 Germany had its worst year in terms of business bankruptcies, and not the least (major brands in fashion, telephony, construction, mechanical engineering, food production, etc.)[46]. The outlook for 2024 is no better[47], all the more so given the lack of investment in many sectors in Europe as a result of the public debt crisis (see above), and the fact that in 2024, in addition to the Ukrainian crisis, the crisis in the Red Sea (and the Suez Canal) will have repercussions for transport and transport prices.
In the United States, the situation is even more problematic, as the trend has continued and intensified every year since 2022, and 2024 will see no turnaround. The combination of rising interest rates, rising prices, the end of the stimulus and record levels of household debt makes the problem difficult to overcome, especially in an election year[48].
We therefore anticipate a large number of bankruptcies in Europe and the United States, with a high risk of a domino effect, which will not be contained by all governments. States will therefore be tempted to seek “easy” money from taxpayers[49], their investments and savings… anger of the people… political radicalisation…
21 – Inflation and interest rates to remain high, despite low commodity prices
Inflation is set to remain high in 2024, with prices alternating between stagnating and rising again. In December 2023, inflation picked up in Europe[50] and in the United States[51], inflation is spreading to the services sector, agri-food prices remain high[52], tensions in the Red Sea are rekindling fears[53], the rental housing sector is under pressure due to a lack of housing and a wait-and-see attitude to buying, which is pushing up prices. In short, inflation is far from over, and European governments have understood this by negotiating an extension of support for energy prices until the end of 2024. This trend will counteract the desire to lower interest rates, which will have no choice but to remain at the same level, or even to rise further, contrary to the announcements made at the end of 2023[54]. And these increases will withstand relatively low commodity prices.
22 – Commodities and raw materials: Falling prices on complex and contradictory markets
Commodity prices have fallen by 10% over 2023, according to the Bloomberg indicator[55]. We expect this trend to continue in 2024, despite the apparent contradiction with high inflation. This can be explained by the fact that governments are going into recession and companies are struggling with debt and a lack of investment and orders, but will still try to achieve some form of profitability by raising their prices.
Here again, the wait-and-see attitude resulting from the elections, the difficulties of the world’s largest economies, geopolitical tensions in various parts of the world, and trade tensions, particularly around the market for electric cars, batteries and semi-conductors, will have a negative impact on investment and drive prices down. This trend is already seen in products and regions such as nickel in Indonesia[56] and iron ore in Guinea[57].
23 – Cheap oil
The forecasts[58] for the oil market all point[59] towards cheap price stability. A balance between supply and demand appears to be the main factor in alleviating prices. On the one hand, producers are forecasting production cuts, while on the other, demand growth is set to slow as a result of a more general slowdown in economic activity.
24 – Property: The Bubble continues to deflate, dragging down the economy
House prices in Europe have been falling steadily for two years[60] and will continue to fall in 2024. The main reason for this decline is the high level of interest rates. As we have already written, they will remain high in 2024, so the fall will continue. This fall also reflects the correction of a bubble that inflated with the low pre-covid interest rates. For the time being, there has been no explosion, and there probably won’t be, because all the players involved are aware that property is overvalued. The rate of decline will therefore vary from city to city.
The most problematic aspect of this trend is its impact on the rest of the economy. Investment is being massively postponed, whether from professionals in the sector or private individuals looking for housing or passive income[61]. This type of investment in the construction sector is driving many other sectors, and it will be one of the causes of the tipping of the European economies into recession and the wave of bankruptcies that we are about to experience.
25 – Financial crisis: “Tech Bubble” in the United States
Figure 4: The Magnificent 7 (mercenaries) of American Tech and their weight in the market. Source: moomoo
Although it is not necessarily insurmountable, we expect a financial bubble to burst in US tech stocks. There are many signs pointing in this direction, and they should converge in 2024[62]. The problematic aspects of the general economic situation will not encourage investment; tech stocks have risen sharply in recent years, and some are clearly overvalued[63], particularly those of the Magnificent 7, even though they represent almost a third of the value of the US market; innovations, particularly in hardware, are slowing down and making far less significant progress than in the past[64]; The arrival of AI has disrupted the pace of innovation in recent years, and we now have to deal with future regulation and find practical applications for this new technology (see our article A Reader’s View of the Future); the political dimension of the tech giants is now universally acknowledged, and all that would be needed would be another scandal during the American campaign to make these companies an investment that cannot be considered neutral[65].
For some analysts[66], the years 2024-2025 will see all the bubbles burst, from the debt bubble (bond market) to the stock market and the property market, the three pillars of the economy. 2023 set the tone, and 2024 will follow suit…
26 – Widespread technology withdrawal
This trend will be accentuated by a technology break that will last throughout the year, albeit at different levels. The younger generation has a relationship with technology that should not be caricatured solely by increased dependence, with many people questioning the constant use of digital technological tools[67]. The year 2024 will also be marked by increased regulation of the sector and potentially significant bankruptcies. Combined with tensions over access to resources and energy, we anticipate a pause in the progress and use of most of these technologies. Not a pure and simple reversal in technological progress, but a year-long standby in the race ahead, which will in most cases allow us to take a necessary step back and rethink the most beneficial uses in order to clean up the most invasive practices.
27 – Climate and environmental objectives called into question
Another challenge will concern the climate and environmental objectives of governments. Here, the UK can be seen as a forerunner[68]. In recent years, governments and international institutions have been quick to set ambitious targets without giving themselves the means to achieve them or measuring the scale of the economic and political upheaval that they would entail. As much more mundane considerations take over in the economic climate, the first casualty will undoubtedly be the climate agenda. This trend could aggravate social tensions between, on the one hand, a section of the population that has integrated the environment into its entire political software and, on the other, another section of the population that refuses to do so and the governments that make the decisions.
28 – Westerners will have to go back to work…
The COVID crisis revealed the impasse in which Western economies had become trapped: an economy based essentially on services and finance. This situation led to a new awareness and to political decisions focusing on the objectives of reindustrialisation and strategic autonomy. Ambitious projects that have taken time to find concrete political expression, but with the IRA on one side of the Atlantic and European industrial investment plans on the other, these ambitions will begin to take shape in 2024.
As a result of these measures, which have received too little attention to date, Western citizens are rolling up their sleeves and getting back to work. The trend is fuelled by a number of phenomena: the introduction of AI, which could replace certain jobs, company bankruptcies, geopolitical and international trade tensions, tensions over energy supplies (nothing is more reliable than elbow grease), the crisis of meaning at work, etc. All of this will lead to a reduction in service jobs (starting with those described as bullshit jobs) and an increase in industrial and blue-collar jobs. The political and social repercussions will be mixed, since they could both result in an outcry or be welcomed by those who will find greater fulfilment in these jobs than in the services.
29 – Reducing migratory flows
The demand for a return to work will be fuelled and sustained by a reduction in migratory flows to Europe, mainly as a result of voluntary government policies, but also by the beginning of a reversal in the attraction of migrant populations[69]. The declining influence of the EU and the rise of the BRICS and the Global South as global models will begin to be reflected in migratory flows in 2024.
30 – In 2024, China’s population continues to decline
2024 could also be a watershed year for immigration to China. China is once again opening the doors to business, study and tourist immigration[70], but it could also be inclined to open its sites (not just physical, but virtual too) to immigration of workers to keep its production and distribution centres running because of its ageing population. In 2002, 14% of the Chinese population was aged 65 and over. The new birth policies, especially as the fertility rate is falling even in China, will have very little effect on this ageing population in the short term. In order to balance its demographic balance of active population and consumers in the future, China will need a flow of around 50 million immigrants over the coming decades[71]. If China’s doors open, a tide will rush in to this new employment Eldorado, whatever the nature of the work. There is no doubt that the Chinese government will take every precaution to safeguard its “internal empire” and that it will use all the technologies promised by AI to keep a mass of not-so-immigrant workers at bay.
31 – Bitcoin = Digital gold, says the US government
The message is clear: the US government validates Bitcoin’s financial interest, in the short term, and could even take control of it in the long term. 2024 is off to a strong start for the crypto world, with the historic decision by the US SEC to authorise the listing of Bitcoin ETFs on the US financial markets[72]. In so doing, the US administration is acknowledging the interest and existence of this crypto, a first for a global power. We note that this action is being taken in concert with Blackrock, which is investing more discreetly via unit purchases and buyouts of companies in the[73] sector, and will be one of the main distributors of ETFs[74].
As the year progresses, Bitcoin’s legitimacy will only rise, and it will be accepted by a much wider audience. Its price will undoubtedly go up, even if we are not expecting an explosion given the rather timid immediate reaction.
In the longer term, this decision, combined with a policy of encouraging Bitcoin mining companies to set up on US soil, gives the US the technical capacity to establish almost total control over this crypto-currency. This possibility is consistent with our expectation that the United States is neither behind nor naïve in the development of a CBDM, but that it is favouring the strategy of imposing control over a crypto that it will put at its service rather than creating a digital currency. The counter-offensive to the de-dollarisation of the world is underway.
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[1] Source: APNews, 21/11/2023
[2] After promising to opt for the dollar, the Argentine government has just confirmed that “contracts can be concluded in bitcoin”. Source: Les Echos, 22/12/2023
[3] Source: Reuters, 10/08/2023
[4] Ethiopia has just signed a historic agreement with Somaliland, acquiring part of the port of Berbera to ensure access to the Red Sea. Source: France24, 01/01/2024
[7] Source: BNN Bloomberg, 13/01/2024
[8] Sources: Balkan Insight, 11/01/2024 and Balkan Courier, 10/01/2024
[9] Source: Reuters, 14/01/2024
[10] Source: Vie Publique, 24/11/2023
[11] Each camp defends its own reform, and the nationalist and nationalist right camp also supports a reform of the EU, but a “nationalist” one (a contract between nations). Source: DW, 08/10/2023. Federalists share different visions, ranging from a European “superstate” with “super-sovereignty” (Americanist-imperialist) to a progressive and pragmatic federalism based on the choice of European citizens expressed through genuine trans-European parties and bodies. Source: Le Grand Continent, 29/12/2023
[12] Source: Euronews, 08/01/2024
[13] Source: European Commission, 27/11/2023
[14] Source: France24, 30/10/2023
[15] Source: Reuters, 04/12/2023
[16] While the UK-India agreement is in the final stages of negotiation, the road to an EU-India agreement seems long. Sources: MINT16/08/2023 and India Briefing, 10/01/2024
[17] Sources: Radio Classique, 07/12/2023; Le Monde, 06/12/2023, AsianTimes, 11/11/2023
[20] Source: The Guardian, 16/11/2023
[21] Source: Reuters, 06/01/2024
[22] Source: World Crunch, 06/12/2023
[23] Source: Reuters, 03/01/2024
[24] Source: The Guardian, 15/01/2024
[27] Source: Yougov, 30/04/2023
[28] The RN is credited with “28.5% of voting intentions expressed. Ten points ahead of Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons” according to the latest poll. Source: BFMTV, 13/01/2024
[29] Hence the appointment of Gabriel Attal, the “anti-Bardella” weapon. Source: FranceTVInfo, 11/01/2024
[31] Source: Tagesspiegel, 07/01/2024
[33] Source: France24, 12/03/2023
[36] Source: The Journal, 12/01/2024
[37] Source: Politico, 17/11/2023
[38] Source: Statista, 11/2023
[40] Source: Le Monde, 27/09/2023
[41] Source: BFMTV, 13/12/2023
[42] Source: Capital, 07/01/2024
[43] Source: Quartz, 26/07/2023
[44] Source: La Croix, 08/01/2024
[47] Sources: Merkur, 14/01/2024 and Trending Topics, 09/01/2024; Le Courrier des Stratèges, 15/12/2023
[48] Source: Reuters, 03/01/2024
[49] Source: Agrarheute, 12/01/2024
[50] Source: The Guardian, 05/01/2024
[51] Source: White House, 11/01/2024
[52] Source: Ekathimerini, 11/01/2024
[53] Source: Bloomberg, 13/01/2024
[54] Source: The Guardian, 10/12/2023
[55] Source: The Economist, 04/01/2024
[56] Source: Fast Markets, 08/01/2024
[57] Source: Nasdaq, 07/01/2024
[60] Source: Euronews, 03/10/2023
[61] Source: Idealista, 18/12/2023
[62] Some consider it to be the Black Swan 2024. Source: moomoo, 26/12/2023; Medium, 08/01/2024. Or the Bank of England, source: CNBC, 10/10/2023
[63] Source: Barron’s, 23/10/2023
[64] Source: Wall Street Journal, 23/02/2023
[65] Source: Brookings, 14/06/2023
[66] Cf Housepricecrash, 17/12/2023
[67] Source: Light Reading, 23/08/2023
[68] Source: AP News, 20/09/2023
[69] Source: FRA Europa, 23/10/2023
[70] Source: Xinhua, 11/01/2024
[71] Source: Wislon Center, 31/05/2022; The Conversation, 18/07/2023
[72] Source: Reuters, 11/01/2024
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