Home Eyes on the future – Adrien Hubert: « Will the BRICS be the collateral victims of the war in Ukraine?”

GEAB 177

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Sep 2023

Eyes on the future – Adrien Hubert: “Will the BRICS be the collateral victims of the war in Ukraine?”

Adrien Hubert works in international cryptocurrency and Web3 circles more generally. He has set up several companies, including Geminy, of which he is CEO. He gives us his views, based on a wealth of economic data and publications, on the future reconfiguration of the global monetary system: BRICS, Dollar, digital Euro, MDBC, crypto-currencies… an overview of the movements of the various tectonic plates.

The lesson we can learn from the latest BRICS summit is that it is very complicated for this group of countries to make an official announcement about the launch of a common currency, or even a monetary instrument, because it would immediately be linked to the war in Ukraine. They do not want to be some sort of collateral victim or accomplice of Russia. This is the main reason why the joint announcement is being avoided for the time being. However, the project has been in the pipeline for ten years or so, and it was the sanctions against Iran rather than those against Russia that prompted the desire to build an alternative common international currency that would be competitive with the dollar. The current challenge is political and geostrategic, to be associated with the war in Ukraine and to be presented by the Americans as Russia’s objective economic allies. Obviously, Brazil doesn’t want this, but even the Chinese are very cautious. From my point of view, this could be the argument that would sway Vladimir Putin in favour of a ceasefire, even a temporary one, to allow this project to get off the ground, even if it means resuming the war afterwards.

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Contents

The diplomatic return revealed a clear advantage for the Global South in the concert of nations, marked by the BRICS summit in the first place, announcing an expansion to six [...]

Everyone knows that what doesn't bend, breaks. This is the short-term threat to the European Union's economy. The supranational operation of its institutions is inflexible, and in the international economic [...]

The political landscape of the European Union is undergoing a paradoxical reconfiguration: ideas from the right, and even more so from the far right, are on the rise; yet the [...]

Africa, the last pawn on the global multipolar chessboard Egypt, Ethiopia, South Africa: Africa's BRICS axis is more oriented towards the East, although it should be noted that Addis Ababa, [...]

Cheap oil is history As demonstrated in our economic panorama, oil prices will remain high in the short and medium term, driven mainly by the coordinated action of Russia and [...]

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