GEAB 177

Everyone knows that what doesn’t bend, breaks[1]. This is the short-term threat to the European Union’s economy. The supranational operation of its institutions is inflexible, and in the international economic competition in which it has found itself, it is up against much more agile competitors. At present, a fall in living standards, fuelled by inflation[2] and driven by a crisis in purchasing power, is threatening the global economy and in particular households and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The EU is the most exposed, with direct implications for personal debt and various sectors of the economy, especially the housing market. We do not talk of a possible sudden crash, but rather a slow and painful recession that will lead to a significant downgrading of the EU in the global economic rankings[3].

The threat of recession is common to most regions of the world[4], the IMF identifies the fragmentation of international trade through increased restrictions as the main cause of the decline in the global economic performance[5]. As a result, global growth prospects for 2024 have been revised downwards[6]. But only the EU is entangled in continental decision-making processes, other countries have better levers at their disposal. For this economic panorama, our team has therefore opted for a European perspective, from which we will take a 360° view: the completion of the Chinese economy, to take over the role played by German industry in recent years; a difficult but effective American re-industrialisation; the redirection of monetary flows and natural resources; a soon to be Middle East in good shape; Iran and Russia which, thanks to the BRICS+ and their new trade routes, will be definitively reintegrated into the multipolar world; and, finally, a troubled Commonwealth that will become increasingly dependent on the United States.