Home Global Economic Panorama 2024: Purchasing power crisis, personal debt, SME bankruptcies, real estate, reindustrialisation. It’s a make-or-break time in Europe!

GEAB 177

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Sep 2023

Global Economic Panorama 2024: Purchasing power crisis, personal debt, SME bankruptcies, real estate, reindustrialisation. It’s a make-or-break time in Europe!

Everyone knows that what doesn’t bend, breaks[1]. This is the short-term threat to the European Union’s economy. The supranational operation of its institutions is inflexible, and in the international economic competition in which it has found itself, it is up against much more agile competitors. At present, a fall in living standards, fuelled by inflation[2] and driven by a crisis in purchasing power, is threatening the global economy and in particular households and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The EU is the most exposed, with direct implications for personal debt and various sectors of the economy, especially the housing market. We do not talk of a possible sudden crash, but rather a slow and painful recession that will lead to a significant downgrading of the EU in the global economic rankings[3].

The threat of recession is common to most regions of the world[4], the IMF identifies the fragmentation of international trade through increased restrictions as the main cause of the decline in the global economic performance[5]. As a result, global growth prospects for 2024 have been revised downwards[6]. But only the EU is entangled in continental decision-making processes, other countries have better levers at their disposal. For this economic panorama, our team has therefore opted for a European perspective, from which we will take a 360° view: the completion of the Chinese economy, to take over the role played by German industry in recent years; a difficult but effective American re-industrialisation; the redirection of monetary flows and natural resources; a soon to be Middle East in good shape; Iran and Russia which, thanks to the BRICS+ and their new trade routes, will be definitively reintegrated into the multipolar world; and, finally, a troubled Commonwealth that will become increasingly dependent on the United States. 

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Contents

The diplomatic return revealed a clear advantage for the Global South in the concert of nations, marked by the BRICS summit in the first place, announcing an expansion to six [...]

The political landscape of the European Union is undergoing a paradoxical reconfiguration: ideas from the right, and even more so from the far right, are on the rise; yet the [...]

Adrien Hubert works in international cryptocurrency and Web3 circles more generally. He has set up several companies, including Geminy, of which he is CEO. He gives us his views, based [...]

Africa, the last pawn on the global multipolar chessboard Egypt, Ethiopia, South Africa: Africa's BRICS axis is more oriented towards the East, although it should be noted that Addis Ababa, [...]

Cheap oil is history As demonstrated in our economic panorama, oil prices will remain high in the short and medium term, driven mainly by the coordinated action of Russia and [...]

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