GEAB 177

The political landscape of the European Union is undergoing a paradoxical reconfiguration: ideas from the right, and even more so from the far right, are on the rise; yet the traditional conservative right is living out its final hours, at least as an autonomous political force.

This is due to the very strong polarisation of the debate in countries such as France[1], but also in Italy, Germany, Spain and Austria, to name but a few[2].  This polarisation of the debate testifies to the success of the democratic model, but also to its weaknesses. In France, Les Républicains (LR – the historic conservative right-wing party) are in crisis, caught between Horizon, the announced successor to Macronism[3], and the Rassemblement National, which is in the process of being de-demonised and, according to some observers, already normalised[4]. In Austria, the far-right FPÖ is scoring ever higher figures[5], and although it has suffered some setbacks due to corruption scandals[6], it is now the country’s leading political force, forcing the ÖVP to work with it in coalitions if it wants to survive[7]. In Spain, the alliance between the far-right Vox party and the right-wing Partido Popular (PP) is becoming commonplace. After Aragon in August, Murcia became the fifth region in Spain where the far right (Vox) came to power hand in hand with the PP[8]. In Italy, it was also a coalition that triumphed in 2022, propelling Giorgia Meloni to the head of the government formed by the combination of the conservative right-wing party Forza Italia, founded by Silvio Berlusconi (who died in June), and two far-right parties, Matteo Salvini’s League and the Fratelli d’Italia, led by Meloni.

Finally, in Germany, the CDU, a right-wing political formation that had been brought back to the centre of the political spectrum by a moderated Angela Merkel, is increasingly forced to collaborate with the AFD at local level.

Figure 1 – The rise of the far right in Europe. Source: Statista

The traditional right has a choice: disappearance or the abandonment of its values

In France, the LR is living out its final years, torn between the Horizon party, which will be able to convince the left wing of the Republicans to join it for the 2027 elections. This is well illustrated, for example, by former French president Nicolas Sarkozy’s open support for Emmanuel Macron[9]. On the other side, it is Marine Le Pen’s far-right RN that is attracting Eric Ciotti’s wing. In Germany, as the polls we have already discussed show, the Länder-wide elections are likely to be won by the far-right, which is in some cases ahead of the CDU. One thing is certain: the number of far-right members of the Bundestag will increase, trivialising the AFD’s position of strength on the political scene and helping to fuel the phenomenon. Austria will hold elections in 2024 that the FPÖ could win on its own, and the ÖVP will continue to lose voters to the FPÖ, despite its decision to harden its stance. In this game, only the far right will be able to win. In Spain, the July elections failed to produce a government. Even though the PP candidate, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, won the most votes, he cannot manage without Vox and two other small extremist parties[10]. A coalition which seems almost natural between the right and the far right, showing that small alliances or collaborations initiated at local or regional level can lead to alliances at national level. Above all, this victory for the left is not definitive, and future elections could prove very disappointing for those who thought they had escaped the worst in Spain.