Category: economy

Climate change has been shifting our relationship with water, bringing power and politics into human rights issues of access and management, because the powerless is particularly hit by this. Besides the question of access to safe water for domestic use, it is also a matter of sovereignty over the landscape.[1] Water also serves many purposes […]

For almost 20 years we have been anticipating a revolution in the international monetary system and in particular the emancipation of the global economy from the trade vehicle of the 20th century, the dollar.[1] Apparently, nothing has happened, the reason being that no one had any interest in the dollar disappearing overnight. So, the whole […]

For 17 years, the GEAB has been characterising one by one the phases of the global systemic transition process. As of April 2023, it is very clear that the “new world” (led by the BRICS), after a slow and uncertain revival almost 15 years ago, is now beginning its take-off phase. The new world is […]

The following article is the result of discussions between the GEAB editorial team and Dr Louis Arnoux. The latter’s work is far more alarmist than most research in the same field, namely the future of the oil industry and oil as a fuel for the world economy. The results and data discussed below, even though […]

Dragging in its wake the Silvergate and Signature banks, the Silicon Valley Bank’s bankruptcy (SVB) remains the sad event illustrating this GEAB issue of March: as analysed/anticipated over the past three years, after the lyrical flights of Western tech at the start of the Covid crisis, painful returns to reality would inevitably be the batch […]

We anticipate that Narendra Modi’s Make in India strategy, fueled by the Anglo-Saxon anti-China strategy, will attract a good number of companies that will remain there – in all senses of the word. In line with our previous article on India, it is appropriate to warn our readers against the “Indian temptation” that is likely […]

While the West is gradually withdrawing its assets from China in anticipation of worsening tensions between the West and the Middle Kingdom,[1] and is becoming aware that its reindustrialisation is facing innumerable difficulties (financial, environmental, human), India appears to be the ideal replacement solution: a large and cheap workforce,[2] a desire for development “at all […]

If we take the geopolitics of foreign direct investment (FDI)[1] in the loop, the map of the new multipolar world naturally comes out. Its analysis allows us to anticipate this current and future recomposition. Three poles remain clearly identifiable for the time being: the United States in the lead and set to stay there, China, […]

The threats to the profitability of the insurance industry are now forcing its transformation. The consequences will be brutal for policyholders, companies and households, as well as for insurers, whose loss of profitability threatens the sustainability of their business model. This situation will make the insurance sector the perfect contagious element of an economic and […]

This article was written by Naël de la Sayette, a civil nuclear power consultant. The invasion and war in Ukraine have brought to light the fragility of the European energy supply. The return of the theme of the sovereignty of Europe, but also (or above all) of the European states, has been confirmed in the […]

Between the desire for supremacy and the wish to use space as a catalyst for a new economy, the vision that nations have of their place in space is remarkably diverse. Let’s remember that space is one of the few sectors which needs to have a long-term view. Race for space supremacy between China and […]

Young, even infant, the space market has grown by 70% since 2010 and is expected to reach a trillion dollars in annual revenues by 2040.[1] One might think that the space economy would one day become normal, like the car economy, but that would be to navigate like a sorcerer’s apprentice. Three words sum up […]

This September, NASA’s Psyche spacecraft will take off from Cape Canaveral to study the asteroid with the same name and the metals littering its surface. Behind the science, there is this dream of asteroid mining. This is an example of the Space Psyche of tomorrow: building an economy the resources of which are not terrestrial. […]

Article written by Christopher H. CORDEY, Swiss national, founder of Futuratinow, a consulting firm specialising in IDEAtion, strategic anticipation and training. Partner of Yonders.world. Denial, illusion of security, feeling of powerlessness and unpreparedness seem to prevail in terms of preparing the population for the risk of a blackout on a European scale. Blackout is a […]

Meta/Facebook: Complications in sight Mark Zuckerberg’s life has never been more complicated. Even he is questioning his free advertising-based model[1] and is moving towards a Netflix-like model. Officially, he is facing a crossfire of regulations, a shrinking subscriptions base, the arrival of Web3 challenging all his fundamentals, and more recently the loss of a quarter […]

Investments – The voice of reason In view of our booklet of trends and all the points of uncertainty we have identified, we would urge you to be careful about the two most extreme segments of the economy: hyper-innovation and zombie economics. When it comes to commodities, currencies, countries or companies, avoid betting everything on […]

China’s economy weakened further in August 2021 after a fresh Covid outbreak curbed consumer spending[1]. To relaunch the economy after the Covid-19 crisis, the country continued its old-style supply boost by starting state sponsored projects and reinforcing factories to produce more and more. Yet, as data has shown, internal demand in China has not risen […]

A cluster of major trends 2022 is shaping up to be a complicated year… After the great pause of 2020, 2021 tried to make it look like things would return to normal. Instead, as we anticipated at the beginning of last year, every hint of recovery has led to new fractures in the old system: […]