Category: governance
In our January Panorama of trends for 2021,[1] we mentioned that the US was the main question mark on our map of the future. Part of this dark spot was coming from the fact that Joe Biden had not even taken office on January 15 and it was yet difficult to grasp the reality of […]
Particularly three phenomena concur to the distortion of our collective understanding of reality: the economic and mobility slowdown, the collapse of information systems linked to the pandemic, and the election of Joe Biden. All this creates a dangerous illusion of “calm after the storm” resulting in reduced vigilance. Therefore, and despite the whole bunch of […]
The post-election statement made by German Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (“The idea of European strategic independence goes too far if it nurtures the illusion that we can ensure Europe’s security, stability and prosperity without NATO and the U.S.”)[1] requires France to revise its defence strategies and priorities. We anticipate that Macron’s desire to build a […]
2021 is full of events that could not be held in 2020 due to the pandemic. Some of these dates are still uncertain, and the 2021 Calendar that we’re setting out here may get overhauled, even though all the political economic and financial stakeholders have now gone through the digital looking glass and are holding […]
After the year of “reflection” that the long Covid break of 2020 has provided humanity,[1] Year One of the World After, or the “Digital Age”, takes us on a trip “through the looking glass”.[2] Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking Glass was written as a sequel to Alice in Wonderland in 1871, the year the German […]
Like any living organism, our world died in suffering, blood and excrement (and disease). Like any living organism, a new world is born in suffering, blood and excrement (and vaccination). The baby will grow and transform very quickly, crushing the freedom and the common sense of its parents. Then there will be the teenage tantrums, […]
In a period of uncertainty and with the morose predictions that have constantly plagued it over the last ten years, the European car industry has undoubtedly taken advantage of the covid crisis to take a more wholesome route. In spite of a severe indictment, what with the saturation of urban spaces, environmental problems, unacceptable dangers […]
Everyone knows that democracy in general is sick. Nevertheless, the West continues to base the legitimacy of its world ‘leadership’ on this supposed civilisational superiority. In the 1990s, the wars fought in the Middle East in the name of ‘democracy’ stirred hatred towards this fine principle,[1] contributing to a decline in its attractiveness. But the […]
The prospects for social reorganisation that can be imagined from the current health crisis are enormous. We have, therefore, decided to focus on Europe, about which we are much more certain than we are about the rest of the world. But certain trends of transformation will be the same everywhere. Governance: strengthening regional and global […]
There’s no need to wait for the results of the election to anticipate some of the major features of the new Europe that will be established after June 2019. Certainly, on the surface, there will be no revolution: The sovereignist right-wing parties (ENF[1]+Brexit[2]+AEPN[3]+CRE) won’t accumulate more than 20 or 25% maximum of parliamentary seats (around […]
There is a lot about epilogues in this issue! In the case of the EU (a phase in the construction of Europe which came into being on 7 February 1992 in Maastricht), the upcoming elections will seal the vision it has held for 27 years. And this is not an anticipation! We reiterate that the […]
The financial crisis followed by the debt crisis has led to a substantial change in the mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB) and to more political provisions. The ECB has acquired implicit mandates to safeguard the euro but also an economic policy which all go far beyond the original objective of price stability. The […]
This anticipation is not very original but it must nevertheless be faced with all the lucidity required. It is hardly a hypothesis, but rather a certainty: the allied European far rights will constitute the most consistent and therefore powerful parliamentary group in the next European Parliament, whatever their results in the previous national elections. What […]
Since its creation, the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin has been designed among other things to inform European public opinion and decision makers about the fact that the global geopolitical reconfiguration vitally requires a profound change of the EU. The United States, structural associate of the European project since its origin – but mostly since the […]
A long time ago, in 1998, Franck Biancheri, our regretfully departed director of studies, signed an anticipatory article entitled: « 2009, when Europe ends up in the hands of the grandsons of Hitler, Pétain, Mussolini… ». This is the fate he anticipated for the EU in case it failed to democratize. The failure is a patent […]
The editorial GEAB team decided to share, exceptionally, with its readers an excerpt of the as yet unpublished document entitled “Community or Empire”; a book written by Franck Biancheri in 1992. This excerpt evokes the importance for the EU’s endowing with a forecasting capacity to adapt its governance to the challenges of its reopening to […]
The corona crisis has been the trigger for the EU to finally start issuing common bonds. It was a modest and hard-won step forward. In the midst of the flames, the fire brigade still took 5 days to decide to bring out the big fire hose. That says a lot about the degree of divisions […]
Energy producers, distributors and investors worldwide are currently facing a triple whammy of falling demand, falling capacity and price wars that cannot fail to undermine the international corporate-based energy system that we have all come to rely on. Are countries doomed to repeat the errors of the past, or can the Green Movement work with […]