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GEAB 108

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Oct 2016

The GEAB team’s Future Events Calendar

Political anticipation does not work using crystal balls. “Future data” represents the raw material for its analyses: elections, summits, and various meetings are elements which allow us to cast light on a future of facts. Since June 2016, the GEAB team has decided to share with its readers the raw data which underpins our anticipations. The future events’ calendar sets up important dates identified by the editorial team for the coming three months, and provides remarks on the perspectives offered by each of them. The whole piece offers a real map of the coming three months, something which is particularly useful to every decision maker.

October 15-16, 2016: BRICS Summit in Goa

We still anticipate a relatively weak summit as part of a moderately voluntary presidency. India wishes mainly to continue the dynamics of rapprochement between BRICS members, incorporating business and people-to-people aspects. The issues related to democracy will come into intra-BRICS discussion. On geopolitical issues, it is likely that the BRICS will refrain from any strong positioning; even if they may speak of their future participation in the reconstruction of Syria. Loyal to the tradition of BRICS’ cooperation with regional supra-national entities, India joined the BRICS Summit program, a BRICS-BIMSTEC Summit (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) which will actually bring to Goa eleven heads of state from: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and also Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar (Burma) and Thailand; on the theme of common counter-terrorism issues.

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