Home An evaluation of our anticipations for 2016 (drawn from GEAB n° 101 of January 2016): 75% success

GEAB 110

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Dec 2016

An evaluation of our anticipations for 2016 (drawn from GEAB n° 101 of January 2016): 75% success

Each year in December, we evaluate our trend anticipations made in January. This month, we come across a final score of 25.5 out of 34, meaning a 75% success rate; two points more than last year. The year 2014 and the great turmoil caused by the Euro-Russian shock that drove us below the 70% success at that time, seems to be reconciled with. We can claim an average success rate of 73% – between 2012 (when the first GEAB editor Franck Biancheri died) and 2016.

The shocking “game changers” of the year, Brexit and the Trump victory, may not have been factually predicted by our team. However, with regard to the Brexit, we nevertheless analysed that with or without Brexit, the influence of the UK on the EU would decrease in the wake of the referendum, releasing forces of reorganisation on the continent. Thus, our anticipations are, in the end, not so distorted by the reality of the British vote. 

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Contents

As we have already discussed and explained before, the crisis is now taking a more geopolitical form. Does this mean that the economic-financial crisis is over? No one will accuse [...]

Since November 8, 2016, India has created a monetary revolution of a magnitude never seen, both by the size of the population concerned and the depth of the transformation induced. [...]

Africa! The second largest continent in the world after Asia, both in size and population, and also one of the poorest is shaken by internal conflicts and wars. But above [...]

Infrastructure versus sovereign bonds We have repeatedly emphasised this before: Donald Trump's campaign promises and the probable launch of “fiscal QEs” in Europe and in the US, offer a bright [...]

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