Category: Magazine
The petrodollar system has been in agony for several years now. We wrote in our GEAB No. 100 that our team’s belief was that we were about to live through the final collapse of this system in 2016. Since it is the pillar of the current international monetary order, its fall will allow (even force) […]
Since the United Kingdom joined the European Community in 1973, according to the exorbitant terms that we know for Europe, its leaders have renewed, ad nauseam, Margaret Thatcher’s strategy based on the following idea: “You need us, but we do not want you, so you do as we say”. Yet, what was true in 1973, […]
Our team has chosen to place 2016 under the sign of a “general strategic retreat”, affecting all levels of social organization, starting of course with the national levels, but not only. This retreat (or fallback) will not yet represent in 2016 the end of the global mobility, of the international exchanges or of the internet, […]
LEAP/E2020 is offering you, like each year, a summary overview of the key trends in 2016. Besides the intellectual significance of LEAP/E2020’s contribution, which of course reflects many of the analyses of our researchers during the past months, it aims at enabling a better perception of news priorities, while at the same time providing recommendations… […]
To explain the current financial turmoil, all official accusing fingers are pointing to a single guilty party: China, the ideal guilty player, the same way Greece and the euro currency were at their time. It is true that evidence seems to be on the side of those accusing fingers, due to the recently unstable Shanghai […]
After a hollow year 2014, particularly because of the disruption caused by the Ukrainian crisis, our team returns to its usual scores, close to 75% of successful anticipations. . Investments, trends and recommendations -Oil, shale, inventories: still not for tomorrow : Our team did not find many articles in the international media showing surprise about how […]
The « Gulfies» : after the oil, the sky is the limit. In the GEAB No 96 of June 2015, we had discussed one of the new diversification strategies of the Gulf countries’ economies, particularly the one related to the capturing of the international air traffic through game stakes based on direct investments in the European […]
Dear Subscriber, Here we are, counting 100 editions of our bulletin and 10 years of an incredible GEAB adventure. Let me tell you this story: The GEAB was born in January, 2006, out of a fierce desire of independence for our think-tank, LEAP : an intellectual independence, essential to the relevance of our work on European […]
LEAP, whose method of political anticipation was invented by Franck Biancheri, and applied every month in the GEAB, is honoured to have been invited to contribute a 20-page chapter in an international scientific publication on Cognitive Systems entitled « Anticipation across Disciplines », edited by world famous anticipation expert, Prof Mihai Nadin (Springer, 2015)… . Investments, trends […]
For 40 years now, the freezing of the situation in Western Sahara has been contributing significantly to the paralysis of the whole of North Africa. Nevertheless, significant changes in the regional order allow our team to anticipate a future outcome. . South China Sea, 2016: a summit of bordering countries In line with the escalating […]
US business schools, once considered as being the best management training institutes, are today witnessing a decline in trust and market value of their degrees. The failing state of the US business school model is due to many factors ingrained into its management, curricula and non-performance of the primary duties of educational institutions…(read more in […]
After an unbelievably long period of hectic growth, the Chinese economy has begun to slow down. While the high growth phase was characterised by remarkable stability, the phase of slower growth, if the present crisis is any indication, is likely to be more turbulent. Slow riding an economy is much more difficult a task than […]
We have repeatedly analyzed that only the regional powers would be able to restore calm in the Middle East and resolve the Daesh issue, the common enemy on which (almost) everyone has agreed. However, we have stated that the US or Russian interventions would only have the effect of exacerbating tensions. Repeatedly missed opportunities Suffice […]
When LEAP launched the GEAB in January 2006 with the object of describing a “global systemic crisis” in the making, one of its aims was to help raise awareness amongst Europeans of the US’ weakness and of the opportunity which then existed to complete the continent’s independence process. This objective was not only motivated by […]
A lot has happened in Greece since the last GEAB issue. A dramatic turn of events at the end of June with the referendum on austerity organized by Tsipras at the end of June, Varoufakis’ resignation at the beginning of July despite the large “no” victory which he defended, negotiation of an emergency solution, and […]
The concept of « rogue waves » has already been used by our team in June 2009 to highlight the strength and frequency of the shocks suffered at the time by the global economy which isn’t getting back on its feet: unemployment, bankruptcies, Treasury bond crisis.The image comes to mind once again in the light of this unprecedented crisis […]
In the face of some rather worrying indicators in recent months, we have got to the point of asking ourselves the question of the likelihood of a return of European wars looking out to 2020. Actually, it’s not because our team continues to see the crisis’ exit tracks falling into place, that it doesn’t keep watch […]
These last few months our team has striven to anticipate and mark out the future paths that are carefully being put in place at European and world level. Indeed, the underlying trend is now clear: a reorganization of the world into a more or less assumed multi-polarity, more or less undergone, more or less compartmentalized; […]