Everyone remembers the images picturing floods, hail storms, mudslides, tornadoes and other disasters that have swept Europe, Germany, France, and Belgium recently, but also those of other continents (America, Australia, and Canada, where huge fires are still raging in Alberta). The estimated damage is reported to be in billions of Euros: 1.4 billion estimated in […]
This month we analyze the impact of the US presidential campaign on the way the American economic and financial situations are perceived. We all know that reality is a matter of perception. Our readers have probably noticed that recently we have spoken less frequently of the US economy in our bulletins. The reason is simple: […]
In 2014, our team anticipated the disintegration of the Eastern European flank following the conflict between the EU and Russia. Two years later, the damage has become visible. If Europe and Russia fail to renew any dialogue, the worst is yet to come in this part of Europe, a region where old demons are in […]
As part of our series of articles on the United States, knowing the elections are almost here, and deep socio-political changes are most probably on the way in this country, we will dedicate some time to study what the crisis in Puerto Rico says about the solidarity of the US union system. We will show […]
We are risking a bold anticipation here, but at least does it provide an interesting angle on the EU’s most important issue since 2014: the dramatically decaying relationship with its closest and most powerful neighbour, Russia. Moreover, as mentioned in our Manual of Political Anticipation, the anticipatory exercise consists of “thinking the unthinkable”… and bringing out […]
Who will benefit from the striking perspectives offered by the construction market in emerging countries? If we had to trust the forecasts, the period 2020-2030 will be the new golden age of the construction and civil engineering companies… (read more in the GEAB 104) Western real estate: a market of contrasts We have already pointed […]
For nearly 10 years now, the global systemic crisis has been composing an impressive symphonic « canon »[1] in which the financial crisis, the economic crisis, the social crisis, the political crisis, the ideological crisis and the geopolitical crisis, all of them of a global dimension, play similar melodic lines sequenced one after the other. We’ve been […]
Even though it was considered a global model, at least since Tocqueville and his book Democracy in America (1835), the US democracy is currently on the verge of a major turning point. This shift seems to be the result of the total lack of updating in American politics, the self-proclaimed paragon of global democracy… (Read […]
Considering the barrage of change indicators, our GEAB team currently feels like they don’t know where to start in order to provide a coherent and complete picture of the crisis. Yet, this feeling is probably nothing compared to what our leaders and their advisers experience. A sense of loss of control of the flow of […]
Precisely ten years ago (to the day), in its second bulletin of February 2006[1], warning about the imminent explosion of a «global systemic crisis”, the GEAB based its opinion on the identification of two strong signs: the end of the publication of the M3 money supply indicator[2] (suggesting a start to unusual degrees of the […]
Since the United Kingdom joined the European Community in 1973, according to the exorbitant terms that we know for Europe, its leaders have renewed, ad nauseam, Margaret Thatcher’s strategy based on the following idea: “You need us, but we do not want you, so you do as we say”. Yet, what was true in 1973, […]
Our team has chosen to place 2016 under the sign of a “general strategic retreat”, affecting all levels of social organization, starting of course with the national levels, but not only. This retreat (or fallback) will not yet represent in 2016 the end of the global mobility, of the international exchanges or of the internet, […]
After a hollow year 2014, particularly because of the disruption caused by the Ukrainian crisis, our team returns to its usual scores, close to 75% of successful anticipations. . Investments, trends and recommendations -Oil, shale, inventories: still not for tomorrow : Our team did not find many articles in the international media showing surprise about how […]
The « Gulfies» : after the oil, the sky is the limit. In the GEAB No 96 of June 2015, we had discussed one of the new diversification strategies of the Gulf countries’ economies, particularly the one related to the capturing of the international air traffic through game stakes based on direct investments in the European […]
Dear Subscriber, Here we are, counting 100 editions of our bulletin and 10 years of an incredible GEAB adventure. Let me tell you this story: The GEAB was born in January, 2006, out of a fierce desire of independence for our think-tank, LEAP : an intellectual independence, essential to the relevance of our work on European […]
After an unbelievably long period of hectic growth, the Chinese economy has begun to slow down. While the high growth phase was characterised by remarkable stability, the phase of slower growth, if the present crisis is any indication, is likely to be more turbulent. Slow riding an economy is much more difficult a task than […]
We have repeatedly analyzed that only the regional powers would be able to restore calm in the Middle East and resolve the Daesh issue, the common enemy on which (almost) everyone has agreed. However, we have stated that the US or Russian interventions would only have the effect of exacerbating tensions. Repeatedly missed opportunities Suffice […]
Les salariés- de Fiat Chrysler menacent de faire grève -un événement jamais vu depuis 2007 dans l’automobile américaine. Le syndicat de l’automobile américaine (UAW) a averti Fiat Chrysler d’une possible grève dès mercredi dans la soirée, a déclaré mardi le constructeur automobile. Si cette menace est mise à exécution, il s’agira de la première grè.ve […]