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Economics: Good news will be pouring! The French presidential election at the heart of a European takeover of the media narrative

The voice of France in the world seemed to have disappeared (at least since 2007), which is a far cry from the brilliance of French diplomacy in 2003 when the country opposed the war in Iraq. And yet, just when we think that the influence of this country was dead and buried, the French presidential […]

Post-Brexit: European schemes of dismemberment of the City of London

The tiny financial centres of the Eurozone have been rubbing their hands since the British chose to leave the EU, positioning themselves in order to recuperate significant market shares of the City’s activity. A recent study made by the Brussels think-tank Bruegel proposes two scenarios of possible gains for a number of financial centres, depending […]

An evaluation of our anticipations for 2016 (drawn from GEAB n° 101 of January 2016): 75% success

Each year in December, we evaluate our trend anticipations made in January. This month, we come across a final score of 25.5 out of 34, meaning a 75% success rate; two points more than last year. The year 2014 and the great turmoil caused by the Euro-Russian shock that drove us below the 70% success […]

Chinese debt, global debts, interest rates: the insolvent countries no longer have friends

As we have already discussed and explained before, the crisis is now taking a more geopolitical form. Does this mean that the economic-financial crisis is over? No one will accuse us of having pretended that. If need be, we can confirm that the crisis is always there, always vivid, and it is in perfect shape […]

US Isolation: When global finance turns away from the dollar system, it means the cliff is near

The United States has been voluntarily isolating itself from the rest of the world, and not just from a geopolitical point of view. This terrible isolation can only get worse, whatever the result of the presidential election: if Trump wins, it will be due to a lack of foreign policy; in the case of Clinton, […]

US Isolation: When global finance turns away from the dollar system, it means the cliff is near

The United States has been voluntarily isolating itself from the rest of the world, and not just from a geopolitical point of view. This terrible isolation can only get worse, whatever the result of the presidential election: if Trump wins, it will be due to a lack of foreign policy; in the case of Clinton, […]

France 2017: What can we hope from the presidential election? – Criteria and tips

In short, the answer is, not much. But let’s elaborate! As our team noted in the September issue, Brexit unleashed a large potential to reorganise Europe with, as it happens in transitions, huge opportunities but also great dangers. But citizens of several countries at the heart of Europe find themselves stuck in unnecessary and dysfunctional […]

Insurance sector: Questioning of the economic model

Everyone remembers the images picturing floods, hail storms, mudslides, tornadoes and other disasters that have swept Europe, Germany, France, and Belgium recently, but also those of other continents (America, Australia, and Canada, where huge fires are still raging in Alberta). The estimated damage is reported to be in billions of Euros: 1.4 billion estimated in […]

US elections: the detonator of the ultimate phase of the economic and financial American crisis

This month we analyze the impact of the US presidential campaign on the way the American economic and financial situations are perceived. We all know that reality is a matter of perception. Our readers have probably noticed that recently we have spoken less frequently of the US economy in our bulletins. The reason is simple: […]

Angry nations, democratic challenges, global systemic crisis – Balkanization and returning empires in Central and Eastern Europe: the drama of the failure of European integration and of the Euro-Russian crisis

In 2014, our team anticipated the disintegration of the Eastern European flank following the conflict between the EU and Russia. Two years later, the damage has become visible. If Europe and Russia fail to renew any dialogue, the worst is yet to come in this part of Europe, a region where old demons are in […]

USA 2017 – Independence is the right path for Puerto Rico

As part of our series of articles on the United States, knowing the elections are almost here, and deep socio-political changes are most probably on the way in this country, we will dedicate some time to study what the crisis in Puerto Rico says about the solidarity of the US union system. We will show […]

Last quarter 2016: Vladimir Putin quits the Russian presidency

We are risking a bold anticipation here, but at least does it provide an interesting angle on the EU’s most important issue since 2014: the dramatically decaying relationship with its closest and most powerful neighbour, Russia. Moreover, as mentioned in our Manual of Political Anticipation, the anticipatory exercise consists of “thinking the unthinkable”… and bringing out […]

European construction industry: Frustrating dreams of grandeur and retreat

Who will benefit from the striking perspectives offered by the construction market in emerging countries? If we had to trust the forecasts, the period 2020-2030 will be the new golden age of the construction and civil engineering companies… (read more in the GEAB 104) Western real estate: a market of contrasts We have already pointed […]

Brazil, Europe, Iran, US, Saudi Arabia – The return of national sovereignty: heading toward one ultimate stand?

For nearly 10 years now, the global systemic crisis has been composing an impressive symphonic « canon »[1] in which the financial crisis, the economic crisis, the social crisis, the political crisis, the ideological crisis and the geopolitical crisis, all of them of a global dimension, play similar melodic lines sequenced one after the other. We’ve been […]

US Elections: The end of the American democracy as we knew it

Even though it was considered a global model, at least since Tocqueville and his book Democracy in America (1835), the US democracy is currently on the verge of a major turning point. This shift seems to be the result of the total lack of updating in American politics, the self-proclaimed paragon of global democracy… (Read […]

NATO, central banks, migrant crisis, TTIP, technologies … Western elites in panic mode for a future in the form of a question mark

Considering the barrage of change indicators, our GEAB team currently feels like they don’t know where to start in order to provide a coherent and complete picture of the crisis. Yet, this feeling is probably nothing compared to what our leaders and their advisers experience. A sense of loss of control of the flow of […]

Petro-Euro, money-debt, banking crisis, real economy: ten years to seal the fate of an economic-financial system

Precisely ten years ago (to the day), in its second bulletin of February 2006[1], warning about the imminent explosion of a «global systemic crisis”, the GEAB based its opinion on the identification of two strong signs: the end of the publication of the M3 money supply indicator[2] (suggesting a start to unusual degrees of the […]

UK’s Referendum, a prerequisite to restarting Europe

Since the United Kingdom joined the European Community in 1973, according to the exorbitant terms that we know for Europe, its leaders have renewed, ad nauseam, Margaret Thatcher’s strategy based on the following idea: “You need us, but we do not want you, so you do as we say”. Yet, what was true in 1973, […]