Category: Perspective

The diplomatic return revealed a clear advantage for the Global South in the concert of nations, marked by the BRICS summit in the first place, announcing an expansion to six new countries: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Ethiopia, Iran and Argentina[1]. This decision demonstrates the confidence these countries have in their own […]

To be fair, political anticipation requires us to look back at past forecasts. This is what the LEAP team does every August by delving into the GEAB archives. This year, we went back to 2017 to rediscover our anticipations on China’s global power. While China’s position on the world stage is complex in relation to […]

International relations and geopolitical tensions are fuelled by a myriad of factors, the most well-known of which is access to mineral resources and agricultural products. The microprocessor war reveals new tensions linked to the new economies.[1] Indeed, as soon as a resource essential to the smooth running of an economy becomes scarce, the framework for […]

The world is as big as we want it to be. Our team is dedicated to exploring the world’s geopolitical balances of power and opening a window on how they might evolve. While the future is the cornerstone of our editorial line, we also place the plurality of information at the heart of our work. […]

We hear a lot about the end of civilisation linked to the arrival of AI, which ChatGPT has made clear for everyone. Human beings would have no or very little added value from now on, AI would be so much more than HI… We have news from the future that is both reassuring and disturbing. […]

For 17 years, the GEAB has been characterising one by one the phases of the global systemic transition process. As of April 2023, it is very clear that the “new world” (led by the BRICS), after a slow and uncertain revival almost 15 years ago, is now beginning its take-off phase. The new world is […]

Dragging in its wake the Silvergate and Signature banks, the Silicon Valley Bank’s bankruptcy (SVB) remains the sad event illustrating this GEAB issue of March: as analysed/anticipated over the past three years, after the lyrical flights of Western tech at the start of the Covid crisis, painful returns to reality would inevitably be the batch […]

While the West is gradually withdrawing its assets from China in anticipation of worsening tensions between the West and the Middle Kingdom,[1] and is becoming aware that its reindustrialisation is facing innumerable difficulties (financial, environmental, human), India appears to be the ideal replacement solution: a large and cheap workforce,[2] a desire for development “at all […]

To begin this year, our team would like to warmly thank all of our readers who responded to the questionnaire we sent you in our previous issue. Many of you have expressed interest and enthusiasm in the idea of building a space for research, reflection and anticipation, in which we can share our knowledge and […]

Dear subscribers, As the year reaches its end, everyone is reflecting on what is behind and what is being built for the future. Our team is not exempt from this exercise and after 17 years of writing which have produced up to this issue No. 170, more than 5,000 pages of analyses, anticipations and recommendations […]

Did you like transhumanism? You will love posthumanism! If the first, while wishing an increase in human, still asserted its centrality, the second intends to exceed the human and humanism in order to place the tools it has created at the core of the construction. The prefixes are important: “trans” here indicates the notion of […]

This article was written by Naël de la Sayette, a civil nuclear power consultant. The invasion and war in Ukraine have brought to light the fragility of the European energy supply. The return of the theme of the sovereignty of Europe, but also (or above all) of the European states, has been confirmed in the […]

(open letter to European Atlanticists) NATO and Atlanticist circles are shamelessly crowing about the superb unity displayed by the Allied camp “thanks” to the suffering in Ukraine[1] : “Who would have thought that a war would be a rebirth of the Alliance from its brain death noted by the French president a year ago?” the Atlanticists […]

For our traditional dive into the archives in August, we have logically chosen the major theme of this year 2022: the entry of Russian forces in Ukraine. The interest of this exercise is primordial to our work of anticipation, and it makes more sense on such a burning subject. As we mentioned in our March […]

Between the desire for supremacy and the wish to use space as a catalyst for a new economy, the vision that nations have of their place in space is remarkably diverse. Let’s remember that space is one of the few sectors which needs to have a long-term view. Race for space supremacy between China and […]

The tangle of all the crises in the making is reaching such an intensity that it is hard to believe that a major rupture will not occur by the end of the year. Not to mention wars and other conflicts,[1] inflation,[2] shortages,[3] unprecedented widespread impoverishment,[4] “hurricane of famines”,[5] natural disasters,[6] drought,[7] blackouts,[8]… if it is […]

This issue 165 is an important step in the history of the GEAB as it breaks with the sacrosanct tradition of anonymity of the articles, until now always collectively signed by the “LEAP team”. In this world-after which is moving in all directions, we feel that a publication on the future should now include a […]

It is not a bipolar world that will result from the current war between the West and Russia, but the collapse of 500 years of Eurocentric global civilisation, at the core of which we see Europe, Russia and Ukraine mainly. This will have the US, China and the rest of the world involved not necessarily […]