Home COVID-19 / America21: Fatal chain reaction

GEAB 146

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Jun 2020

COVID-19 / America21: Fatal chain reaction

Last month, we anticipated a risk of derailment of the centuries-old machine of the American elections.[1] With optimism, we hypothesised that an exceptional context could lead to an extraordinary election that would send Trump as well as Biden back to the ropes and bring to light a third option, more representative of the ‘New America’ which we had outlined.

A month later, we are even more convinced that the November election promises surprises.[2] But a reasonable and more pessimistic version of our anticipation would be that no ‘man of the hour’ will appear and that America will descend into the chaos of a non-election or, worse, an election deemed illegitimate.

Certainly, we have seen how much New America (NBC, Libra, OpenRan Policy Coalition, [3] etc…) has already started to tilt towards Europe. If it fails to ‘take power’ in the crisis context we will describe further on, the probability of our anticipated shift in the transatlantic centre of gravity taking place will be increased.

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The summary

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