Home COVID-19 / America21: Fatal chain reaction

GEAB 146

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Jun 2020

COVID-19 / America21: Fatal chain reaction

Last month, we anticipated a risk of derailment of the centuries-old machine of the American elections.[1] With optimism, we hypothesised that an exceptional context could lead to an extraordinary election that would send Trump as well as Biden back to the ropes and bring to light a third option, more representative of the ‘New America’ which we had outlined.

A month later, we are even more convinced that the November election promises surprises.[2] But a reasonable and more pessimistic version of our anticipation would be that no ‘man of the hour’ will appear and that America will descend into the chaos of a non-election or, worse, an election deemed illegitimate.

Certainly, we have seen how much New America (NBC, Libra, OpenRan Policy Coalition, [3] etc…) has already started to tilt towards Europe. If it fails to ‘take power’ in the crisis context we will describe further on, the probability of our anticipated shift in the transatlantic centre of gravity taking place will be increased.

Comments

To leave a comment sign up now
Contents

Since 2006, the global systemic crisis described by the GEAB has referred to the ‘system’ founded in 1945 in the aftermath of the WW2. Nevertheless, at the heart of this [...]

As the virus attacks what has been viewed as the core of the Western reactor since 1945, namely America, it is propelling Europe, regenerated by twelve years of reflection, to [...]

In theory, Europe currently seems much more compatible with the multipolar world of the 21st century than the United States. But it still needs to prove it. From 1st July, [...]

Digital data is the new black gold; the adage is familiar, but the stakes involved less so. With the COVID-19 pandemic, the world has achieved a two-year digital transformation within [...]

Energy producers, distributors and investors worldwide are currently facing a triple whammy of falling demand, falling capacity and price wars that cannot fail to undermine the international corporate-based energy system [...]

Oil: Displacement of another centre of gravity China, the largest importer of oil, is about to finalise the security of its energy supply system. Its strategy is based on the [...]

Related articles
GEAB
15 Oct 2021

2022 – A New Europe is born

#defence #europe #France

Six years after the announcement of the Brexit, five years after the transatlantic "shock" of Trump's election, a few months after the withdrawal from Afghanistan, our team anticipates that a [...]

GEAB
15 Sep 2021

The transformational challenges of the post-Merkel era

#europe #germany #politics

In a few days, after 16 long years of rule, the 'royal' figure of Angela Merkel will no longer dominate Germany. The Chancellor will have conducted her country through a [...]

GEAB
15 Aug 2021

Structural Trends in the Global Systemic Crisis (multipolarisation)

#europe #geopolitics #Multipolar World #multipolarisation

MULTIPOLARISATION: what is it? Since 2006, the GEAB's mission has been to analyse the very large systemic transition in which the world is struggling in order to anticipate its next [...]