Home Investments, trends and recommendations (Jun 2020)

GEAB 146

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Jun 2020

Investments, trends and recommendations (Jun 2020)

Oil: Displacement of another centre of gravity

China, the largest importer of oil, is about to finalise the security of its energy supply system. Its strategy is based on the diversification of resources (nuclear in particular), but as oil remains key to the stabilisation of the world economy, there is no question of leaving it in the unreliable hands of the USA. Last November, China became Saudi Arabia’s leading customer. It is of course perfectly positioned in relation to other major producers such as Iran, Russia and Venezuela… And its crude oil contracts traded in yuan on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange launched 2 years ago already represent 10% of the world’s traded volumes. The volatility that the end of the US shale industry will impose on the American-centric oil market will throw increasing contingents of this sector’s players into China’s arms. We anticipate a bumpy second half of the year (players, it’s time to do business) and then a very significant stabilisation of the price of crude under Chinese domination from 2021 onwards.

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Contents

Since 2006, the global systemic crisis described by the GEAB has referred to the ‘system’ founded in 1945 in the aftermath of the WW2. Nevertheless, at the heart of this [...]

Last month, we anticipated a risk of derailment of the centuries-old machine of the American elections. With optimism, we hypothesised that an exceptional context could lead to an extraordinary election [...]

As the virus attacks what has been viewed as the core of the Western reactor since 1945, namely America, it is propelling Europe, regenerated by twelve years of reflection, to [...]

In theory, Europe currently seems much more compatible with the multipolar world of the 21st century than the United States. But it still needs to prove it. From 1st July, [...]

Digital data is the new black gold; the adage is familiar, but the stakes involved less so. With the COVID-19 pandemic, the world has achieved a two-year digital transformation within [...]

Energy producers, distributors and investors worldwide are currently facing a triple whammy of falling demand, falling capacity and price wars that cannot fail to undermine the international corporate-based energy system [...]

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