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GEAB 146

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Jun 2020

Investments, trends and recommendations (Jun 2020)

Oil: Displacement of another centre of gravity

China, the largest importer of oil, is about to finalise the security of its energy supply system. Its strategy is based on the diversification of resources (nuclear in particular), but as oil remains key to the stabilisation of the world economy, there is no question of leaving it in the unreliable hands of the USA. Last November, China became Saudi Arabia’s leading customer. It is of course perfectly positioned in relation to other major producers such as Iran, Russia and Venezuela… And its crude oil contracts traded in yuan on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange launched 2 years ago already represent 10% of the world’s traded volumes. The volatility that the end of the US shale industry will impose on the American-centric oil market will throw increasing contingents of this sector’s players into China’s arms. We anticipate a bumpy second half of the year (players, it’s time to do business) and then a very significant stabilisation of the price of crude under Chinese domination from 2021 onwards.

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In summary

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