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Category: dollar

Global statistical dislocation: the multiplication of tools for measuring economic reality

Within the global systemic crisis that we are now experiencing, our experts have been talking for some years about “statistical fog” to qualify the inability of today’s tools to measure real economy, or even the way to manipulate them in order to match results to the political speech (or vice versa). Leaving aside the temptation […]

Anticipations 2017: 16 Up and 19 Down – 35 Key Trends

Every year, LEAP/E2020 is offering you a short overview of the up and down[1] trends of the year which is starting. In addition to the intellectual interest of this contribution of LEAP/E2020, which of course reflects many of our researchers’ analyses over the past few months, it aims at providing a better perception of priorities […]

Chinese debt, global debts, interest rates: the insolvent countries no longer have friends

As we have already discussed and explained before, the crisis is now taking a more geopolitical form. Does this mean that the economic-financial crisis is over? No one will accuse us of having pretended that. If need be, we can confirm that the crisis is always there, always vivid, and it is in perfect shape […]

The EU: Sailing in a raging storm with no navigation equipment

The editorial GEAB team decided to share, exceptionally, with its readers an excerpt of the as yet unpublished document entitled “Community or Empire”; a book written by Franck Biancheri in 1992. This excerpt evokes the importance for the EU’s endowing with a forecasting capacity to adapt its governance to the challenges of its reopening to […]

Will the Euro survive beyond 2017?

We have claimed at great length in previous issues of the GEAB that neither of the two election candidates – Clinton or Trump – would be a good thing for the United States. The verdict has now been passed and it is Trump who will be elected president. Among all the uncertainties that remain, we […]

US Elections – Europe – World: What will the domino effect look like?

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election creates the conditions for change, but it is not change yet, contrary to what the media and populists believe. Far from being a “revolution”, the Trump’s advent at the head of the Western system corresponds to a radicalisation of the ex-ante situation. In reality, Trump is the […]

US Isolation: When global finance turns away from the dollar system, it means the cliff is near

The United States has been voluntarily isolating itself from the rest of the world, and not just from a geopolitical point of view. This terrible isolation can only get worse, whatever the result of the presidential election: if Trump wins, it will be due to a lack of foreign policy; in the case of Clinton, […]

Regional economic unions (2016-2017): Between Apparent Failure and Underlying Recovery

It seems that everything is going wrong for regional integrations. South America’s MERCOSUR trading bloc has completely stopped functioning, due to the marginalisation of Venezuela which currently holds the presidency of the Common Market, but that no one is following anymore. Another alliance currently chaired by Venezuela, the much less known NAM (Non-Aligned Movement), is […]

2016-2020 – Birth of global governance alongside the emergence of a new currency: new SDR paves the way to Globalisation and impacts the American dollar

The world has been seeking a substitute for its reliance on the dollar since 2008. The dependency has been so strong, that it has taken almost a decade for a solution to be drafted. Strangely, this solution came from an institution perceived by some as obsolete, until China took the trouble to bring it back […]

Insurance sector: Questioning of the economic model

Everyone remembers the images picturing floods, hail storms, mudslides, tornadoes and other disasters that have swept Europe, Germany, France, and Belgium recently, but also those of other continents (America, Australia, and Canada, where huge fires are still raging in Alberta). The estimated damage is reported to be in billions of Euros: 1.4 billion estimated in […]

Angry nations, democratic challenges, global systemic crisis – Balkanization and returning empires in Central and Eastern Europe: the drama of the failure of European integration and of the Euro-Russian crisis

In 2014, our team anticipated the disintegration of the Eastern European flank following the conflict between the EU and Russia. Two years later, the damage has become visible. If Europe and Russia fail to renew any dialogue, the worst is yet to come in this part of Europe, a region where old demons are in […]

Peace, global governance, European integration, Middle-East, OPEC: Emerging of the multipolar world imposes a change of method

Since 2006, when the GEAB bulletin was launched, our team has placed the emerging multipolar world at the heart of the global systemic crisis. The effects of the growing relativity of the American power were the first visible signs of a vast global reconfiguration. Then, in 2009, with the creation of the BRIC(S)[1] club, the […]

Petro-Euro, money-debt, banking crisis, real economy: ten years to seal the fate of an economic-financial system

Precisely ten years ago (to the day), in its second bulletin of February 2006[1], warning about the imminent explosion of a «global systemic crisis”, the GEAB based its opinion on the identification of two strong signs: the end of the publication of the M3 money supply indicator[2] (suggesting a start to unusual degrees of the […]

2017, International Monetary System: returning to a fixed exchange rate regime

The petrodollar system has been in agony for several years now. We wrote in our GEAB No. 100 that our team’s belief was that we were about to live through the final collapse of this system in 2016. Since it is the pillar of the current international monetary order, its fall will allow (even force) […]

2016 – Red alert on the dollar, financial crisis, oil, banks… General strategic retreat in the perspective of an imminent “hard landing”

Our team has chosen to place 2016 under the sign of a “general strategic retreat”, affecting all levels of social organization, starting of course with the national levels, but not only. This retreat (or fallback) will not yet represent in 2016 the end of the global mobility, of the international exchanges or of the internet, […]

Turkish Elections – The impossibility of chaos in Turkey

We have repeatedly analyzed that only the regional powers would be able to restore calm in the Middle East and resolve the Daesh issue, the common enemy on which (almost) everyone has agreed. However, we have stated that the US or Russian interventions would only have the effect of exacerbating tensions. Repeatedly missed opportunities Suffice […]

EU/UK/US – Union, Dislocation, Reinvention: The Great Systemic Transformation of the West

  For the fourth consecutive month, accompanied by all the usual precautions, our team continues to believe that the crisis’ peak is now behind us. It’s clear that two photos taken five minutes before and five minutes after this peak can be identical. On the other hand the film isn’t comparable; it’s that the perspective […]

2015 – The global crash won’t happen

We could have also headed our article : “No, the inflating of the Chinese stock exchanges isn’t a bubble”. The Shanghai stock exchange’s exuberant 100% increase in one year is certainly frightening, but it reflects a real dynamic (or rather a correction) of the country’s economic development. One really has to wonder how real money […]